B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AKBA
Akebia TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Vafseo traction is meaningful, with reported revenue growth, patient expansion, and potential upside from VOICE evidence and broader dialysis-provider adoption. The pipeline adds optionality if trials advance without requiring near-term capital disruption [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Clinical, regulatory, and execution risk across the early and mid-stage pipeline.
Momentum
16
Value
54
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.80 · Bull $1.35 · Bear $0.45Analysis 2026-08-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.92
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d -
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical, regulatory, and execution risk across the early and mid-stage pipeline.
- • Dependence on successful term-loan refinancing and continued product revenue.
- • The quarter showed declining total revenue, sharp Erixia pressure, a large net loss, rising operating expenses, and slow DaVita adoption.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Mixed Q2 2026 operating update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-13.2
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 16.4 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 44.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$238.31M
Beta
0.38
Shares Out
277.11M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-41.3
P/S (TTM)
1.78
P/FCF (TTM)
12.45
Rev YoY
-21.4%
EPS YoY
-3766.7%
Gross Margin
+78.9%
Op Margin
-6.0%
Net Debt
$29.76M
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data