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AKAM

AkamaiB
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that the May 7 company release confirmed two real growth engines at once: Security revenue rose 11% and CIS rose 40%, while the $1.8B seven-year CIS commitment adds unusual visibility for a still-small cloud business. If Q2 tracks guidance and CIS capacity ramps cleanly, investors can keep rewarding the AI-infrastructure angle despite near-term margin pressure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
What can break
Available valuation context is not obviously supportive because the packet's median analyst target sits below the current anchor price, limiting room for error if Q2 or full-year execution slips.
Momentum
13
Value
56
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $92.00Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $156.14
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d +1.0
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Available valuation context is not obviously supportive because the packet's median analyst target sits below the current anchor price, limiting room for error if Q2 or full-year execution slips.
  • • Legacy drag is still real because Delivery and other cloud applications revenue fell 7% year over year in Q1, raising the burden on Security and CIS to carry consolidated growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
  • • The bear case is that the headline AI win is already well understood while earnings quality softened: Q1 GAAP operating income fell 26%, GAAP EPS fell 13%, non-GAAP operating margin was 26% versus a year-earlier higher base, and Delivery declined 7%.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Q2 guide and AI-cloud demand checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-21.6
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.9
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+14.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 12.9 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 73.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.67B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
143.72M
P/E (TTM)
25.2
P/S (TTM)
2.99
P/FCF (TTM)
22.05
Rev YoY
+5.4%
EPS YoY
-27.6%
Gross Margin
+53.4%
Op Margin
+11.9%
Net Debt
$4.49B
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data