B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
+12.7% vs current
AIZ
AssurantBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$216.00
-13.1% vs current
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
-33.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2025-09-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.6
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+37.4
Score
AI commentary
Market tone is cautiously constructive: the stock trades near the middle of its recent range with dividend support and analyst consensus skewing positive [#yfinance-quote]. Near-term headlines focus on quarterly results and reserve commentary while longer-term discussion centers on capital returns and margin resiliency [#8-K-2025-02-14], [#10-K-2025-01-29].
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2025-09-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
-catalystReserve / loss-development surpriseHigh impact
Adverse reserve strengthening or higher-than-expected large-loss frequency in housing/device protection could compress earnings and book value [#10-Q-2024-11-07].
-catalystAnnual 10-K disclosures / capital allocation clarityHigh impact
FY2024 10-K outlines capital-return priorities, reserve policy and medium-term strategy that inform valuation and dividend outlook [#10-K-2025-01-29].
2025-10-21eventQ3 2025 earnings / 8-K results releaseMedium impact
Quarterly results and reserve commentary (revenue, combined ratio, reserve development) are primary short-term drivers; a positive underwriting or reserve update would lift shares while adverse reserve development would pressure them [#8-K-2025-02-14], [#10-Q-2024-11-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2025-09-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology