B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGRO
AdecoagroDNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
1Q26 showed strong operating improvement: adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year over year, fertilizer EBITDA reached $52.5 million, and sugar-ethanol benefited from record crushing and ethanol optimization. Further urea-price realization could improve margins and accelerate deleveraging.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.
What can break
Food & Agriculture adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.4 million in 1Q26 from $16.6 million a year earlier.
Momentum
25
Value
48
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $6.80Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.21
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -3.8
Value48 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Food & Agriculture adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.4 million in 1Q26 from $16.6 million a year earlier.
- • Net debt and leverage remain elevated following the Profertil acquisition.
- • The recovery remains leveraged and commodity-sensitive.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
2Q26 earnings release and call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-35.6
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+6.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 24.9 / Value 47.6 / Sentiment 58.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.42B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
144.31M
P/E (TTM)
34.4
P/S (TTM)
0.81
P/FCF (TTM)
31.57
Rev YoY
+48.5%
EPS YoY
-171.7%
Gross Margin
+19.0%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$1.48B
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data