B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGRO
AdecoagroDNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
1Q26 showed strong operating improvement: adjusted EBITDA more than doubled year over year, fertilizer EBITDA reached $52.5 million, and sugar-ethanol benefited from record crushing and ethanol optimization. Further urea-price realization could improve margins and accelerate deleveraging.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
Food & Agriculture adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.4 million in 1Q26 from $16.6 million a year earlier.
Momentum
84
Value
49
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $6.80Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.87
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +21.3
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment35 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Food & Agriculture adjusted EBITDA fell to $1.4 million in 1Q26 from $16.6 million a year earlier.
- • Net debt and leverage remain elevated following the Profertil acquisition.
- • The recovery remains leveraged and commodity-sensitive.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
2Q26 earnings release and call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.3
Δ21d
+68.4
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.2
Sentiment
35
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-22.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 83.7 / Value 48.9 / Sentiment 35.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.34B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
144.31M
P/E (TTM)
34.4
P/S (TTM)
0.81
P/FCF (TTM)
31.57
Rev YoY
+48.5%
EPS YoY
-171.7%
Gross Margin
+19.0%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$1.48B
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data