AFRM

AFRM fell 4% Monday as fast money unwound its post-earnings spike, despite Q4 GMV surging 36% and revenue rising 33% to $1.17 billion. AFRM's 36% GMV growth far outpaces peers like PYPL, but that growth premium drives outsized single-session volatility when fast money exits positions. Max Levchin cited inflation fueling demand, backed by fiscal 2027 guidance for GMV above $64 billion and adjusted operating margin above 30%. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Affirm didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Shares of Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) are unwinding a sharp post-earnings rally to open the week, handing back much of the gain built on Thursday's fiscal fourth-quarter report. The move is more about positioning than any fresh news out of the company, which announced nothing today. Affirm stock is down 4% to $74.51 in Monday morning trading, extending the drift lower that began in Friday's afternoon session. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.52% to $764.36, a soft session for the broad market that puts Affirm's decline in sharp relief. The context matters here. Affirm stock was up 4% year to date through Friday's close, a figure that masks a huge intraweek swing. Friday saw the stock rally to an 11-month high, climbing 13% at its peak before paring most of that gain into the close. Profit taking after a large prior run is the cleanest read. Affirm reported its fiscal fourth quarter Thursday, August 27, for the fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, and the results beat on both revenue and volume. Affirm's revenue rose 33% to $1.17 billion, against a $1.11 billion analyst estimate, while gross merchandise volume, the total dollar value of transactions processed on the platform, rose 36% to $14.1 billion, against a $13.39 billion estimate. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Affirm didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Affirm's profitability inflected, as well. Adjusted operating income reached $353 million, a 30% adjusted operating margin, and GAAP operating income came in at $147 million, a 12.6% GAAP operating margin, up six percentage points from a year earlier. Active consumers grew 21% to 27.8 million, and transactions per active consumer rose 20% to 7. The card story continued to compound. The Affirm Card business reached 5.2 million active consumers, up 125% from the prior year. Affirm's credit quality also improved, with the 30-day delinquency rate on monthly installment loans, excluding Peloton and Pay in X loans, coming in at 2.5%, an improvement from the 2.7% to 2.8% range in each of the previous three quarters. The gap between the results and Monday's reaction is the useful observation. A 4% decline in Affirm shares against a broad market down 0.4% is a far larger move than the broad market explains, which points to positioning in the stock rather than to anything in the results or in the wider market. Friday's session tells the same story from the other side. Affirm shares spiked toward an 11-month high intraday before rolling over, a signal that fast money used the report to sell strength rather than to build new positions. With no company-specific catalyst today, the unwind is just extending that same pattern. CEO Max Levchin framed the demand backdrop on the call: "In times of inflation, we see more demand because folks are budgeting. They're more thoughtful about how they want to use the money, and we're there to help." Affirm's guidance backed that up. For fiscal 2027, the company guided to gross merchandise volume above $64 billion and an adjusted operating margin above 30.5%. Affirm sits in the installment-payments space alongside PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL), though the two run very different growth profiles. Affirm printed 36% GMV growth in the quarter, a pace that puts it in a different bucket from the slower-growing large-cap payment platforms it's often compared against. That growth premium is exactly why single-session volatility runs so hot in Affirm shares. When a fintech name trades on multiples of forward revenue and forward operating income, small changes in positioning move the price far more than similar flows would move a mature payments stock. Monday's selling is consistent with fast-money profit taking rather than any change in the underlying franchise. Position sizing is crucial here. A name that can spike 13% and give it back inside two sessions carries more single-session volatility than Affirm's fundamentals suggest, so investors should consider keeping their position sizes moderate while the gap between the results and the share price stays unresolved. Traders should watch for signs of stabilization in Affirm shares near pre-earnings levels, along with any sell-side revisions catching up to Thursday's raised fiscal 2027 outlook. The read on today's move is technical rather than fundamental in nature. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Affirm didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings of $4.62 per share. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents by 1,300%. The metric rose from 20 cents a year ago. Revenues of $1.17 billion rose 33.0% year over year and surpassed the consensus mark of $1.11 billion by 5.4%. AFRM’s strong quarterly results were driven by robust Gross Merchandise Volume (“GMV”) growth, higher transactions, strong repeat customer engagement and increased interest income. Rapid growth in Affirm Card adoption and merchant activity also supported the performance. However, elevated operating expenses and higher provision for credit losses partly offset the gains. The bottom line also benefited significantly from a $1.45 billion income tax benefit related to the release of a valuation allowance on domestic deferred tax assets. Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote As of June 30, 2026, AFRM’s active merchants totaled 570,800, up 50% year over year. GMV increased 36% year over year to $14.1 billion. The figure also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.4 billion. The metric gained from strong contributions from direct merchant point-of-sale integrations, wallet partnerships and direct-to-consumer offerings. Total transactions rallied 41.1% year over year to 52.9 million on the back of a significant surge in repeat customer transactions. The metric beat the consensus mark of 47.4 million. Active cardholders more than doubled to 5.2 million, lifting the card attach rate to about 19%. Servicing income of $46.1 million advanced 36% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $45.4 million. Interest income rose 35% year over year to $567.3 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $542.3 million. Merchant network revenues improved 26.3% year over year to $302.4 million but missed the consensus mark of $306.1 million. The metric gained from growing GMV. Card network revenues amounted to $85.2 million, up 26.9% year over year, attributable to higher usage of Affirm Card and Affirm virtual cards. The metric beat the consensus mark of $75.9 million. Operating expenses increased 24.5% year over year to $1.02 billion. Provision for credit losses climbed 42.5% to $223.2 million, while technology and data analytics expenses rose 31% to $202.6 million. Higher infrastructure costs and amortization of internally developed software contributed to the increase in technology and data analytics expenses. Operating income improved to $147.3 million from $58.1 million, with operating margin expanding to 12.6% from 6.6%. Adjusted operating income increased 49% to $353.4 million, and adjusted operating margin improved to 30.3% from 27.0%. Affirm exited the fiscal fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.6 billion, which increased from $1.4 billion as of fiscal 2025-end. Total assets of $15.8 billion rose from the fiscal 2025-end level of $11.2 billion. Funding debt totaled $3.3 billion compared with $1.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. Total stockholders’ equity was $5.5 billion, up from $3.1 billion at the end of fiscal 2025. AFRM generated $1.2 billion in net cash from operations for the 12 months ended June 30, 2026, compared with $793.9 million for the 12 months ended June 30, 2025. AFRM reported 2026 operating revenues of $4.3 billion, up from $3.2 billion a year ago. Full-year adjusted net income was $5.53 per share, up from 15 cents a year ago. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, AFRM expects GMV of $13.7-$14.0 billion and revenues of $1.19-$1.22 billion. The company projects revenue less transaction costs of $575-$590 million, an adjusted operating margin of 28.0-30.0% and a GAAP operating margin of 11.5-13.5%. For fiscal 2027, management expects GMV of more than $64 billion. The company expects revenues to remain near 8.49% of GMV, the fiscal 2026 level. Adjusted and GAAP operating margins are projected to exceed 30.5% and 14.5%, respectively. Affirm Holdings currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Other payment space players like Mastercard Incorporated MA, Visa Inc. V) and American Express AXP have also reported their quarterly numbers. Here’s how they have performed: Mastercard reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.04, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7%. The bottom line improved 21.4% year over year. Net revenues advanced 14.1% year over year to $9.3 billion. The top line beat the consensus mark by 2.4%. Mastercard’s quarterly results benefited from strong cross-border volume growth, increased switched transactions and robust demand for value-added services. The upside was partly offset by higher payment network rebates from renewed deals and an escalating operating expense level. Visa delivered third-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.32 per share, which rose 11% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.8%. Net revenues were $11.63 billion, rising 14% year over year. Visa’s quarterly results reflected resilient spending trends, higher cross-border volumes and solid network activity, including a 10% year-over-year increase in payments volume on a constant-dollar basis. The upside was partly offset by increased operating expenses. American Express reported second-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.53, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 11% year over year. Total revenues, net of interest expense, improved 10% year over year to $19.6 billion. AXP’s quarterly results were driven by increased Card Member spending, higher net interest income and improved card fee growth. However, the upside was partly offset by elevated operating expenses. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) : Free Stock Analysis Report Mastercard Incorporated (MA) : Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V) : Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Image source: The Motley Fool. Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET Founder and Chief Executive Officer - Max Levchin President - Michael Linford Chief Financial Officer - Rob O'Hare Head of Investor Relations - Zane Keller Operator: Good afternoon. Welcome to the Affirm Holdings Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and a replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website for a reasonable period of time after the call. I'd now like to turn the call over to Zane Keller, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin. Zane Keller: Thank you, operator. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone listening that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our Investor Relations website. Our actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and the company does not assume any obligation or intent to update them, except as required by law. In addition, today's call may include non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for GAAP financial measures. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings supplement slide deck, which is available on our IR website. Hosting today's call with me are Max Levchin, Affirm's Founder and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Linford, Affirm's President; and Rob O'Hare, Affirm's Chief Financial Officer. In line with our practice in prior quarters, we will begin with very brief opening remarks from Max before proceeding immediately into your questions. With that, I will turn it over to Max to get us started. Max Levchin: Thank you, Zane. As always, the performance as good as it is. I'll keep the prompt remarks brief. As you may have noticed, fiscal fourth quarter was our most profitable quarter ever, even without the tax allowance release. The company is thriving, and the core business is firing on all cylinders. I'm excited to announce that our veteran execs, Pat Suh and Michael Linford, are promoted to SVP, GM of Global Markets and President, respectively, setting us up for an even tighter execution and allowing me to get even deeper into developing our next generation of products and services. With that, happy to address your questions. Back to Zane. Zane Keller: Okay. Thank you, Max. Now let's get to your questions. Operator, please begin the Q&A session. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Adam Frisch with Evercore ISI. Adam Frisch: Congrats to you, Mike, on a well-deserved promotion. Max, at the Analyst Day, you said you're most excited about things you can't really talk about yet. If precedent holds on the initial guidance and how you ultimately will end the year, growth in fiscal '27 should again be terrific, but with investors focused on the sustainability of high growth rates, when should we expect to see some of these initiatives start to show up in future years? And do you believe that over the long-term, Affirm needs to or should offer consumers multiple financial products and services in addition to what you do today? Max Levchin: Thank you. It's a compound question. I'll go backwards. We already offer multiple products to consumers today. So the answer to, should we do that, we think is yes, otherwise we wouldn't have built all these other things. For the moment, the majority of our products are various expressions of offering credit, but not necessarily at the point of sale. It also comes, obviously, in the form of a card. We have an account. We have a version of our product that works for business purchases. So we've already spread into several other subcategories, including verticals that we address. Actually, there's a bunch of that in my note in as well. So we absolutely expect to continue expanding. In terms of when these things will show up, I think this is probably a question for our CFO and Michael in sort of how we set guidance. But the -- a big part of the expectations from this promotion that Michael got and my own focus is I plan to spend a lot more time working on things that will only show up in fiscal '28, '29, and so on. And so the numbers we're putting to the market today reflect our products that are working and growing and printing profits. Some of the crazier ideas from the future are in the future, and we try very hard not to overpromise and underdeliver. Adam Frisch: Okay. I think growth is in good hands with you taking that. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Harry Bartlett with Rothschild. Harry Bartlett: I just wanted to touch on something you mentioned in your shareholder letter. Clearly, it is doing very well, but you said that you're really available at 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and 10% of e-commerce merchants. You're very well integrated with a lot of the major PSPs now and clearly very well known as a brand. So I guess the question is, what's the impediment for getting these remaining merchants to sign up? And how do you kind of bridge that gap to get there? Max Levchin: We don't think of it as an impediment. I think we have an exceptionally strong revenue team, and Wayne, that who runs it, is an exceptional executive and deserves every accolade. And so I expect his team to continue executing and signing each one of these merchants one by one, sometimes in bulk, but mostly one by one. I think the majority of the time for large merchants, these are long sales cycles that take a lot less convincing than ever before. People understand the value that we provide, and they are excited to see it added to their checkout. But many large enterprises that sell things online have complex and frequently outdated systems. A lot of times, adding a new major point-of-sale system requires them to do some major modifications. Sometimes it pushes them to do whatever work that they were postponing because they weren't planning on adding another one. So these are not things that flip in 1 quarter. But the reason I mentioned the numbers you quoted is because there's just an enormous amount of greenfield. We think our -- if anything, this is a sort of a notion of our sales team has a lot of work to do for probably quite a number of quarters, but no one should be taking a break or should you be thinking we're running out of the Internet or anything. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Harshita Rawat with Bernstein. Harshita Rawat: I want to ask about in-store. As Affirm Card continues to scale and now you have the wallet partnerships, how can you scale in-store usage of Affirm where the opportunity is arguably much bigger, as you also alluded. I know there are unique friction points in terms of getting approvals, what happens when you get declined physically get them in store. So I know 30% of your Affirm Card transactions are offline, but it's still very small as a percentage of your overall GMV. So I would love to hear your thoughts on product planning. Max Levchin: I 100% agree. One of the things that the innovation team that I have now more time to run is working on is improving the in-store process. And most things, payments in general, are very rarely about uncovering some low-hanging fruit that was just already in the ground, you need to pick it up. It's primarily about polishing off unhappy paths: poor connectivity. How do you make sure your product works in a large store that's essentially a Faraday cage, you can't get connected to the Internet. How do you integrate with point-of-sale systems that don't know how to read QR codes, don't know how to read barcodes. It's kind of an endless long tail or not endless. There's a meaningful long tail of conditions that make approval or tender delivery or even handling things like card size adjustments in-store just that much harder than online. Online, you hit back on your browser and you correct whatever it is you need to correct. In store, you have to go back to -- the back of the queue to the cash register, which is annoying and people would rather not do that. So the bar for error is much lower, like you have to create a much better consumer experience. So we're excited to work on that. By no means that should imply that we are unexcited about e-commerce. We actually have a lot to do. Obviously, there's still 80% more e-commerce to go. But offline is a giant portion of the market and continues to be. And we have some really interesting ideas on how to make the experience not just uniquely better, but also uniquely Affirm. So maybe the best answer to your question is not quite going to preannounce anything here yet, but we expect to launch a few ideas that are uniquely Affirm specific, which through the lens of sort of product development, you can ask people to do more work to use your product if you're delivering disproportionate value. You can consider sort of Affirm online relative to credit cards. Credit cards are really easy. Just type in a number or you tap it offline and off you go. Affirm has to do a little bit more work to get approval to understand why you might get declined, but the value is there. You get this amazing 0% deal, you get no fees, you get no deferral. And so the work is a little bit more, but the value is tremendous. And so we're going to bring that same ethos of maybe the work is a little bit more, but the value is so much better than what you do with your traditional payment instrument offline. And we'll show something off in the coming quarters. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research. Robert Wildhack: I wanted to ask you about the U.K. It sounds like you're pleased with the progress to date. But could you just tell us more about the early receptivity from consumers and from merchants? And then I'm also curious if there's been any competitive response or changes from the incumbents there that you've seen? Any details there would be great. And congrats to Michael and to Pat on the new roles. Max Levchin: Pretty excited about the United Kingdom, seeing solid results. We just held our first executive dinner there a couple of nights ago where we met with some of the larger existing merchants there and got their first round of formal feedback and all that. And by all accounts, it was a love fest. So I think we're doing well in terms of creating new friends and early fans. The consumer uptake, I think we said it before, and it turned out to be true. There's a lot of love to be had when you don't try to make money by sneaking your business model into fine print and hiding things with fees and such, and we don't do any of those things. And sure enough, consumers love it. But retailers actually have a fresh appreciation for that because to date, there hasn't been a player in the market that would build the products the way we do. On the competitive response, and I don't want to be too loud here because I might wake someone up, but we're not seeing much to report on the matter, to be honest. I think for now, at least we're doing great in terms of feeling like our product is a unique play in the market. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Will Nance with Goldman Sachs. William Nance: I wanted to ask just on the growth in interest-bearing this quarter. Obviously, very strong. I know you're calling out the 41% growth in Pay-in-X, but it's also great to see kind of the largest product almost keeping pace with that product. So just curious how you're thinking about overall product mix and then just more of a nuance there. Just wondering if like the shift to the promotional event, if that created any like mix dynamics that we should consider from the fourth to the first quarter? Max Levchin: Yes. Great question. I think it really comes down to mix within sort of the 2 largest centers of gravity within the product portfolio. So on the one hand, we have point of sale. We did actually see sort of an acceleration in 0% share within point-of-sale integrations. And I think some of that is due to the Big Nothing event, but just it's also been a push of ours in terms of what we're selling into merchants. And then really on the direct-to-consumer side, we actually see a much higher proportion of interest-bearing loans within that product set. So we're running sort of north of 80% interest-bearing on our direct-to-consumer products. And I think just with the continued growth and scaling of things like Affirm Card, it's really that, that's driving the sort of mix shift back towards interest-bearing a little bit. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Dan Dolev with Mizuho Securities. Dan Dolev: Exceptionally, as you said, Max, ludicrous quarter. I like that one. I have a question about something you said at the Analyst Day. You said it gets easier to grow as you gain scale, but some of your competitors are not seeing that. So what are you doing right or maybe what are they doing wrong that makes you benefit from that virtue? And congrats again. Max Levchin: Thank you. I can only speak, I guess, to what we're doing right. I think we know exactly who we are. Like we have a very, very specific set of views on why we do what we do, why we prioritize certain things, why we won't do other things and not just what kind of products or what sort of structures we're willing to put in front of our customers and what we're not. But we are a network. Every decision we make at the product level, at the sales level, at the capital markets level, we ask ourselves, does this benefit every part of our network? Does this grow the consumer base? Does it give them a reason to spend more with us? Does it give them a reason to spend more with our customers, the merchants by adding a merchant, are we exposing our consumers to the merchants we want them exposed to and so on. And so we are constantly asking ourselves how can we create a virtuous cycle? How can we aid the virtuous cycle that we've created. If you have a network, eventually, you start seeing network effects. And network effects are very simply, it is expensive to leave because you're going to miss out on a large and growing body and it's dumb not to join because you are missing out on a large and growing body of business. So the larger we get, the more valuable the network becomes, the more activity that happens on the edges of the graph we're building and the more people, the more merchants want to join the graph. I think for most payment systems, if you sort of cast your eye across the last 50 years of -- and I've been building payment systems for almost that long, sadly, the ones that survive and thrive are the ones that are extremely focused on building a network almost at the expense of anything else. And by the way, if you are willing to stay focused and go long, you are rewarded with profitability, with pricing power, with sustainability of the business, sustainable growth. All of that comes in time if you're focused on building a network. And we have been from the very beginning. If you look through my letters, you'll find the word network probably the most commonly repeated now. And that's sort of the secret to the success so far, and we have no intention of changing that. I think a lot of the players in the space decide that the next shiny object is the thing that will create short-term value and whatever happens next happens next. We try to measure things not in quarters, but in years and hopefully decades. So the strategy has worked for us so far. We'll continue doing exactly that. Dan Dolev: Great. We agree. Congrats again. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Wells Fargo. Jason Kupferberg: So everyone's been asking you guys for a while, are there any signs of consumer stress in the business? Any concerning signals in your data on delinquencies? The answer has consistently been no. We see another strong quarter here. The consumer is really resilient. Is there a case to be made that you guys could actually loosen the credit box a little bit? Or does that feel too risky in light of some of the macro uncertainty out there? And then just a quick one for Rob. Any way you want us to think about modeling GAAP EPS for fiscal '27? Max Levchin: [indiscernible] you answer, and I'll think of something clever? Robert O'Hare: Sure. I mean I think we've given you a lot of the building blocks of GAAP EPS, Jason. We've given you GAAP operating income. We've also given you an estimate for share count. I think the one piece you're missing is the tax rate, and I'll probably go back to some of the guidance that we gave at the Investor Forum in May. We think on sort of a run rate basis, the GAAP tax rate lands in sort of the mid- to high 20% range. I would just caution though that there can be some volatility in the effective tax rate just based on some of the GAAP versus tax differences and how things like stock-based compensation and some other forms of share remuneration treated. So there's likely to be a bit of volatility, especially as we're continuing to scale profitability. So that's one of the reasons we stopped short of giving an exact guide for EPS. It's just the volatility that we think may play out in the tax rate. Max Levchin: Yes. And on the credit side, sort of a couple of thoughts that are sort of disconnected. We're not so big that you can look at Affirm and read the tea leaves of the overall macroeconomic state of the United States. Our consumer is doing fine. You can see that in the numbers. And we are benefiting tremendously from the ability to say yes and no to every transaction. So we are literally choosing the loans we want to make in real time in very small increments, roughly 100 million times a quarter. So highly differentiable curve, and we decide the shape in the area under. So in the sense of control of our credit outcomes, I said it before, I'll say it again 1,000 times, we are in control of the credit reality. You would see us slow down growth before you would see us have a real credit disturbance. And obviously, these are imprecise sciences. So there are always ups and downs in the DQs. But generally speaking, we manage to a number in the sense that credit target is the input, not the output of the business. The output is the approval rates and things like that. And so with that, we definitely have conversations around what's the overall policy stance. Are we feeling good about the future? Are we feeling less good about the future? Should we tighten, should we loosen? But it's never expressed in terms of some giant lever somewhere that Rob Finnegan grabs on to with both hands and opens up the floodgates of money or closes down. It doesn't work like that at all. There's a constant conversation happening in the credit team asking themselves, are there opportunities for strategically more permissive stance at a class of transactions or a class of consumers at a class of merchants. And those conversations happen all the time on a weekly basis, just like the credit team reports back to the management team on a weekly basis of exactly what the landscape looks like. At any given moment, you could hear them say, you know what, here's what's going on. An interesting standout is this. And this could be anything like we're seeing an early signal in DQ0 or DQ1. So day after the payments are due or 2 days after the payments are due, we're wondering what that is. We're going to monitor it for the next 6 weeks and make a decision. And so all this flavor is to give you a sense of we just really do not think about credit as this binary switch that gets flipped on or off. We never scramble to or away from it in part because we have so much control in part because we have an extremely serious point of view on what these numbers have to be for us to be a responsible and reliable counterparty to our capital markets partners. And so that is the most important relationship in the business on the supply side, and we have to maintain it. And so I am sure somewhere right now -- I hope they're not listening to me rant, but instead of doing their job in credit, but someone in the credit analytics team is putting together a scenario analysis showing how a merchant is getting slightly higher approval then what that does for our GMV and an alternative analysis showing how the merchant is getting a slightly lower approval and what that does for our GMV and consumer satisfaction. And so yes, the work is done constantly. By the end of this call, a decision to loosen and a decision to tighten will be made and it will be executed in due notion by the end of it. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. James Faucette: I want to touch on the increase in Pay-in-X and kind of the comments that were made in the letter -- shareholder letter about getting some increased participation from merchants there. Just wondering like how you think about being able to expand that program? And then at least more interestingly, perhaps to me is, is that a gateway to improving or expanding up into 0% promotions, et cetera, for those kind of merchants? Is it basically a test/proof point for them? Max Levchin: That's a great question. I'll start this time and Rob can speak to the exact Pay-in-X growth, which is pretty good this quarter. So kind of the most important things to understand is free use of money is valuable to all consumers. So you can sort of ask like what is Affirm for? And one version of the answer is it's for people trying to figure out how to fit a considered purchase, something that actually registers on their personal financial radar into their monthly outflows. So it's affordability, it's access to capital when they need it or access to credit when they need it. The kind of a baseline answer. A more sophisticated answer is there's always alternatives in that space. And so the question then becomes, well, what's the cost of money? What's the cost of it? And obviously, the cost is interest we charge and the best possible deal is, well, what if there was no interest at all? What if someone else paid your interest. And -- that is a really, really important function in part because that makes the product appealing across all credit spectrum. So you could argue that there's a natural point where you say, well, you know what, I have excess of cash. I just don't care. And if you're going to charge me interest, I'm going to pay cash and move on. I'm going to pay with my credit card and pay it off before the end of the month, so there's no interest at all. The second you enter a space of very low interest like demonstrably lower than your credit card APR or 0, which is everyone's favorite price, you end up in a place where even a super prime borrower would benefit from free use of money. And the longer term is the loan, the more obvious the benefit. So every one of these Pay-in-X type products, it's a version of access to money at no cost to the consumer, we're always looking for ways of funding those transactions by the hands of our partners because they are the primary beneficiaries of these transactions. So it extends from merchants to manufacturers, to brands, sometimes to marketing partners to platform partners. So there's plenty of people who are involved in a transaction that have a degree of margin and have a differing level of excitement to see that transaction go through. The most exciting ones are, of course, merchants because they're dealing with things like inventory management, they have discounts, they rather not make, but they do want to see inventory move. But there's also people in manufacturing and the original equipment manufacturers in particular, that have a predictable upgrade cycle that they're trying to stick to. And they will be very excited a year from launch to push their last year's innovations and the new ones can go forth. And so all of that adds up to ample opportunity to create more of these Pay-in-X and pay-over-time transactions with 0. And I particularly like the longer-term ones because that's where underwriting at 0% consumer interest is a really, really hard science. Like this is the kind of thing where if you screw it up a little bit, you'll make a lot of unprofitable transactions. Part of our longevity in the space and our competitive strength has been our ability to precisely price these things, both on the credit side and the profitability side, the capital markets lens. It's very, very hard to do write unless you're very good and very confident in both your underwriting and your control of your underwriting. So that's kind of why these transactions keep showing up. That's why we do things like the Big Nothing. That's why we do a lot of these promotions in various forms of Pay-in-X. That's why you see growth of various Pay-in-X tractions. And you should expect to continue to see more of these. They're all building a giant book of -- this is proof that you, your favorite the manufacturers, the retailers, all the participants should participate in these because even though they tap into your margin a little bit, they drive the kind of buyer that has a lot of choices, and this is their favorite choice. Robert O'Hare: Yes. And the only thing I would add to that, James, is just I think we really pride ourselves on the breadth of product offerings we can bring to a merchant that can be tailored to the basket of goods that they're selling. And in most cases, the products that we're offering to that merchant's consumers will be dynamic as you go up the basket size spectrum. And so I think what you saw play out this quarter was we had a large merchant that has a relatively low average order value compared to the rest of our network, and they decided to make Pay in 4 an evergreen part of their financing program, and that showed up in a bit of an acceleration in growth for Pay in 4. But we're pretty agnostic ourselves around whether it's a Pay in 4 offering or a 3-month 0% offering. We really want to make sure we put the right offer in front of the consumer that's going to do the right amount of cash flow smoothing for that consumer. And so it really is going to be merchant dependent. And I think our ability to customize those financing programs specific to the merchant is a real differentiator for us in the market. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Connor Allen with JPMorgan. Connor Allen: I wanted to ask about the services vertical. It looks like volume in that category accelerated quite a bit, almost doubled year-over-year. So could you talk maybe just a little bit about services, what drove that acceleration? And then maybe how sustainable the premium growth is within that category? Max Levchin: Part of it is we signed this really large services platform or 2. And I gave an exceedingly long answer last time, so I promise I'll do a shorter one now. So we signed a couple of very large services platforms. They're doing well and growing. And yet this will inevitably come up at some point in this conversation. We're still very, very early in all of those platforms. The product needs to be adapted to the specific motions of those products and services. And we're pretty excited. Our best integrations are always the ones where we get to co-build with the people we are integrating, and we're knee-deep in building a bunch of really cool new stuff, specifically for the services platform. So no promises how long the 2x the speed is going to keep going, but I don't think we're even out of the first inning of that particular game. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Keane with Citi. Bryan Keane: Congrats on the promotions, of course. I wanted to ask on Affirm Edge, Max, I think you said that could be a source of upside in the future. Any traction to highlight during the quarter? It looks like we have a couple of pilots now going to happen in the second half of the year. Maybe just how is that product resonating and the potential for it to be a needle mover in fiscal year '28. And then secondly, just Rob, on revenue less transaction costs. I know it always gets a lot of attention. We were talking, I think, 3.25% to 4%. The guidance, obviously, for fiscal year '27 is a little bit above that at 4.16%. Can you just talk about mix and maybe the drivers to be above the midterm guide there? Robert O'Hare: Sure. I'll take the second one first. Just in terms of the revenue less transaction cost outlook, I mean, really just with the execution that we've seen within the debt capital markets, we just -- we brought on a capital base that gives us a profile and a funding cost that we think should carry on through fiscal '27. And the other big assumptions are things like the mix of how we fund the business, and we expect the mix to stay pretty consistent with what we saw in fiscal '26. Loan product is the other sort of mix component that can drive revenue less transaction cost, take rates. We may start to skew slightly higher to interest-bearing, but it would be a very slight mix shift there. So just given the setup that we have, the other piece, of course, would be consumer credit, and we're not seeing anything in the business today that gives us pause or worry. So I think with sort of those building blocks coming into the year, that's what informed the outlook that we gave, which really is consistent take rates with what we experienced in fiscal '26. Max Levchin: Edge, banks move slowly. That's maybe not a very nice thing to say about our prospective partners, but they're deliberate. They have regulators. They need to make sure that what they launch is not just looks good and looks good to them and was good to us. It also has to look good to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and sometimes Office of Currency Controller and so on. So there's a fair number of people that have to okay and bless structures. That said, pretty excited. We're still building out parts of it. So a little bit of it is just like we have to build the rest of the technology. You're building a thing that you're hosting locally for a bank to log in and like fine-tune their financing programs. It's a thing we didn't do before, now we have to. So there's some work to be done in terms of the technical part of it, but majority of the stuff is built. We're very excited about the reception we're getting. I continue saying this sort of in various quarters. I think the second you see one, you should expect to see more like a bunch, but the first one is always going to feel like what if something goes wrong, how do I handle that? And so -- and we're very sensitive to that. And we know how to launch credit products, but it's not the same thing as launching it for others. So we will frankly take as long as it takes for us as long as we need to bring -- to handhold these first launches to market to be able to report excellent results and hopefully get everybody else excited, too. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Neill with Bank of America. Matthew O'Neill: Yes. Appreciate it. Max, I was curious, you laid out a pretty complete map of growth vectors this quarter. I didn't notice leasing or device upgrades on the list. You presumably looked at it given how much of your volume is high-ticket electronics, you push hard into 0% APR. I was hoping maybe you could just walk us through how you think about the economics of a lease versus an installment loan for the same purchase, what an originator might gain from that? And why you conclude it's not a strategy for Affirm either now or ever? Max Levchin: I host a breakout seminar on -- 45 minutes on deep dives in the economics and complexity of the leasing. There's a couple of different things going on in that domain. The notion of kind of a subscription to your device and an automatic upgrade to the latest and greatest on unpredictable cadence, it's actually a really good idea. It's been around for a little while. It certainly pops up in conversations and sort of attempted launches here and there over the last decade. So I don't think -- there's nothing too equival on -- with on that front. On the other side of the equation, ask your favorite financial services, financial institutions analysts, how they feel about lease-to-own and rent-to-own companies. And if it's an unedited context, you might hear some expletives. And so between those 2, there's a lot of complexity in leasing it doesn't usually happen on day 1. It happens on day 365 or whatever it is, 720 something when you find out that the thing you've been for the last couple of years, you don't actually own any of it. And we definitely care very much about the high-end device sales and scheduled upgrades and creating structures that help our retail partners, our manufacturing partners push their merchandise that way. So I think that's a very, very important task and we're certainly quite motivated to participate in that segment. We think there are better ways. We think we can offer something to the market that is a little bit less prone to the -- what the bleep happen here that happens a couple of years from launch of such things. And we'll have more to say on the matter in some reasonably predictable future. For now, I think we're all going to learn with some of the ones that have launched recently and certainly information to be had. But we tend to try to build things from first principles, and that's what we're going to try to do here, too. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Bauch with BMO Capital Markets. Andrew Bauch: I wanted to ask about Affirm Money Account. I feel like it hasn't been discussed in some time. So could you please provide an update there? And then as we think about your list of priorities, are there any interplays to consider with Affirm Card as it pertains to Affirm Money Account? Meaning does Affirm Card serve as an on-ramp to Affirm Money Account similarly to overall active accounts serve as an on-ramp to Affirm Card? And what does that -- what could that ultimately look like? Max Levchin: That's a great question. For one, it's really important for us to have a first-party product that is the most beautiful version possible of a first-party debit card that speaks to a tightly integrated checking/savings account that works really well with the Affirm Card structure because that's literally what Edge is. So any time we go tell a bank, it's going to be amazing to look at these stats, but better have something that's real. So it happens that we have one of our own. I don't talk too much about it, but it's a great product. I happen to think it's the best way to use Affirm Card. Reveal too many reveals here, but it's something that my 0 to 1 team has full ownership of, and we're working quite hard on making it an exceptional product. It's really a great product. If you haven't connected your Affirm Card to your Affirm Money Account, you should definitely try that. But it has been iterated on and is looking better than ever, and it is the experience that Affirm Edge will offer to our bank partners on the issuing side, but there's even more to come. I'll bite my tongue on that one. But ask me again in a quarter. Operator: Our next question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen. Moshe Orenbuch: I wanted to follow-up on an earlier question on the Affirm Card. Given that you get much higher spending, I think you mentioned twice as much on the card versus a typical customer. But at the same time, in-store commerce is 3 or 4x and the card is still growing at a rapid pace. Could you talk a little bit about how you think or what the drivers are for its contribution to GMV? Like is it going to be more about the attach rate? Is it going to be more about the spending per card? And anything that you would share with us about things you're doing to kind of enhance both of those metrics? Max Levchin: Good question. I think the honest answer is both. And we care a lot about attach rates. I think we try not to be overly aggressive in pushing it because it is kind of the more sophisticated like you have to work your way to understanding why you want one of these products. So it's not another thing we hammer you with. But then again, we do see 2x the use. So we should obviously be hammering it, perhaps harder. And so anyway, attach rate is important. We're at 19% right now relative to actives. We will, I think, see an increase. That's a reasonably good guess. On the flip side, we love the idea of higher usage per consumer too, and we're working on that. To accomplish that, I think a key goal in managing a successful credit business is you have to remember that your job is to help someone spend money responsibly. Like it's not very difficult to convince someone to borrow money, especially if you're not particularly concerned with how they'll pay you back. And it's a much tougher job to convince them that to spend money with you is a better idea than through another product. So there's some degree of transparence that we need to engineer. We've been pretty successful at it, obviously, given the 2x number, and we're finding more ways to do so. One way to think about it or at least the way I speak to the team about it is we need to make sure that the Affirm Card isn't just the best card in the world. It's also the best way to use Affirm. So as you sort of cast your mind across various Affirm offerings, you should always come back to if I use the card, I will get even better blank. So you should expect us to launch features and products that are cards specific that make it more compelling, which in turn will help attach rates because we're obviously not going to keep it a secret to telling people, if you use the card, you'll get X and Y and Z, use just Affirm, maybe slightly less amazing. And definitely not going to nerve the Affirm at the point-of-sale experience, but we'll keep on finding interesting and exciting ways to reward card. And then there was another leg to the question I talk for too long, I forgot. I think that's probably -- those are definitely the important 2 dimensions. [indiscernible] without the card is still a very profitable product for us. It's not a trade down in terms of profitability. We're not going to make it different in terms of financing programs. You'll still get all the financing programs you get at the point of sale. We never want to be less for our merchant partners, but there are ways of making the card even more compelling. We'll work on that. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research. Darrin Peller: Can you just give us a quick update? I mean, obviously, you're outperforming the majority of players in the market, factor in pretty much all of them. But when you think about the competitive landscape, how do you -- I mean, we've seen obviously a number of your peers doubling down on BNPL and some rolling out debit flex cards. So your debit flex card, is there a differentiation you see there? And just more broadly, anything in the market in general you're seeing changing as these competitors start to roll out more and more products also? Max Levchin: I can't say we spend a ton of time obsessing over our competitors. I think we are fairly fixated on ourselves. Selfish as that sound. Selfish as that sounds. I think the product that we have is really compelling. It is different. I still am not aware of any product out there that offer exactly what we do. I think the Visa Flexible Credential that we put together with them is a unique construct and has now been adopted by a couple of players, which is great. I'm excited to see more innovation come through the networks. And that's always a good thing. But the way we built our VFC card is quite unique. It connects to our accounts in a very specific way. And we're -- again, I'm not aware of anyone else who's quite replicated it perfectly. The other thing, like Rob mentioned, and I'll repeat it, one of the unique strengths of ours is we have a large collection of financing programs that we bring to bear for our merchants, but also for our consumers as they decide what fits their bill, their monthly exposure. And I think our card is still highly unique in just how wide the collection of offerings is and literally on every quarter has more and more of these truly unique 0% programs added to it. Like the rewards in the Affirm Card, people often ask us, what is the rewards program? Why is there not a 1% cashback or 2% cashback? And the honest answer is you're getting an extraordinarily more value in every transaction where the merchant is funding your 0s. That's effectively an 8%, 9%, 10%, 15% cash back. And so we wouldn't ever express it that way because that's not how it's understood, but it is the same price except you're paying no interest on it at all for sometimes up to 3 years. And that is definitely not -- has not been replicated by anyone, and I don't expect it to be easily replicable by anyone at all. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets. Daniel Perlin: And congratulations on the quarter and obviously the promotions. I wanted to just touch on quickly the gain on sale revenues, which once again was really the strongest line item for growth. I know you have pretty balanced growth, but this one continues to stand out. But it also looks like it might be normalizing a bit. And so I'm just trying to think about the revenue mix expected around your '27 guide. And that's really just predicated off your road map, the product road map and maybe some international expansion, which it sounds like isn't going to be overly meaningful yet. But any kind of I guess, mix shifts that we need to be mindful of would be helpful. Max Levchin: I think the one thing that I would call out, and this has been true for several years, but it should play out similarly in fiscal '27 as well is just that we will have quarters where -- and Q4 is an example of this. We'll have quarters where when we do a nonconsolidated ABS deal like we did in the fourth quarter, we'll see a bit more gain on sale revenue in those quarters around. So we stopped sort of sharing an exact schedule of nonconsolidated ABS deals for fiscal '27, but I think we did 2 in fiscal '26, and we would expect to have a pretty similar funding plan from that perspective going into fiscal '27. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of John Hecht with Jefferies. John Hecht: Congrats on the promotions and Max and looking forward to the 2029 product launch. The question I have is... Max Levchin: Are you mocking the fact that it takes me 3 years to do anything good. Which is okay. John Hecht: I think, Max, you implied that you're now focused on the way out in the future opportunities. So... Max Levchin: That's mostly could prevent you guys from putting into a spreadsheet. John Hecht: Sorry, I don't anyway. The question I have is it's just sort of the maturation or seasoning of both your customers and your merchants. At the customer level, are you seeing things like a more rapid path to repeat usage at the merchant level? Or are you seeing more rapid pace to a certain level of penetration? Or are there tools that you guys can use to get there? Max Levchin: We're actually seeing really good results on both. And so a lot of it, it's sort of embarrassing. I'd love to take this great credit for like we discovered electricity and everything is faster now. Like we launched Crate & Barrel a few days ago, and then I saw an e-mail in my inbox telling me, "Hey, [indiscernible], are you Crate & Barrel customer because good news is you're an Affirm customer and Affirm now works is great." Like I think in the past, like 5 years ago, I'm not sure I would have gotten that e-mail. 2 years ago, I would have gotten that e-mail a month after the launch. And a year ago, I would have maybe gotten it in the same week. And now just like all those things are much tighter coordinated. There are machines, not people who are responsible for running through a checklist that happens. So the time from launch to meaningful impact to the first report to the merchant saying, "Horay, we're doing this for you. Let's get excited. Let's do more together." It just is a lot tighter. And so we're doing all those things. We're doing them better. So on the merchant side, we're just constantly improving the post-sales support, if you will. And on the consumer side, the best number I can point you to is transactions per user per year just steadily rises and -- we -- if anything, I raged our product team for not sending me enough e-mail or enough notifications or any form of telling me, hey, did you know that you haven't used Affirm in the last couple of weeks is I would welcome it. I'm not sure everybody else would. But we don't really do a whole lot of, hey, please come back. This sheer number of more surfaces where our logo is visible acts as a great reminder for consumers to say, "Oh yes, that was a great experience. I'll do it again." And cards obviously help, et cetera. But all in, the growth of transactions per user is actually a fairly natural phenomenon. And so we continue to just make sure that merchants sign a lot of merchants, we bring them live. We help them promote us. We co-market things together. We now have a very large user base that we can tell excitedly about brands that we love that we're excited to come into the fold. And that has a predictable effect where people say, yes, I'd love to use Affirm, Crate & Barrel. So I think both those things are happening fairly -- fairly organically. I'm sure we can do more, by the way. So I suspect we'll only accelerate from here. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Chiodo with UBS. Timothy Chiodo: I want to talk a little bit about approval rates. I know earlier on the call, we were talking about how for credit loss, it's kind of a given number that you set. You can dial it up, you can dial it down. It's in your control. And the approval rate is sort of related to that at a given level of revenue or unit economics for that loan on the top line. The question that we get often from investors is around your approval rates relative to the other BNPL offerings that are out there. Clearly, they must be much stronger. But when the enterprise sales team goes in to meet with a new prospective merchant, what are they pitching in terms of how much better those approval rates are and how much more GMV they could deliver to that merchant? Max Levchin: I'm allowed to spread a slight amount of FUD, I will do so. We're definitely all compared on the approval rates. And merchants love to ask for guaranteed approval rates. And as a rule, we try very hard not to even talk about those things because that's always a counterweight to our ability to modify a credit policy on the fly as we must. The typical competitive bake-off often enough includes us launching a checkout experience as we would anywhere else and our esteemed competitors launching one where they remove underwriting and fraud prevention and demonstrating extraordinary approval rates only to then have to pull back very hard because you can only make so many bad loans for a while. And we tend to be very focused on our numbers and our losses. And I've said a million times, so I'm not going to dwell too much on it, but it's not enough to have great unit economics. We can obviously approve much deeper and just charge more interest and the profitability would be more or less the same, but anyone who's observing our credit results independent of the profitability would say, wait a second, like these guys are now going much deeper, maybe this isn't going to be as durable in a macroeconomic change reality. And so we tend to be very, very careful about not just the net result, but also the gross losses of the loan content itself. And so we pretty rarely ask ourselves how can we compete with approval rates. We -- all the time, like literally every single quarter ask ourselves, how can we refine our models, which -- if you want to imagine a credit model, it's a sorting function, a very, very sophisticated sorting function, but it looks at a large number of applicants on any given unit time and sorts them into least risky to most risky. And the job of the credit policy is to say, after this level of most risky, I don't want to approve anymore because that's the old risk I'm going to be able to sum it today. And so long as our sorting is as precise as the future reality or as close to future reality as we can possibly get it, that's what we must do. There's not really a shortcut where we say, what if we just approve deeper because the competitors might do so. If anything, we kind of want them to approve deeper than us because they are not as good as we are at sorting risk full stop. And so long as we are given enough time to compare and contrast, very quickly, you start realizing that what looked like a great approval rate on day 1 looks like a rug has been pulled and the approval rates are down and the losses are losses, of course, accumulate from the prior time period. [indiscernible] putting his head down because he's heard enough of this. I'll stop there. Operator: That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to pass it back over to management for closing remarks. Zane Keller: Great questions. Thank you all for joining the call today. I think we'll be seeing many of you on the conference circuit soon. So see you there. Have a good day. Thanks again. Operator: This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. 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While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Affirm (AFRM) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool

On August 28, Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) gave investors two very different signals in the same breath. The buy now, pay later company posted a fiscal fourth quarter that blew past Wall Street's numbers, yet CEO Max Levchin used the moment to flag something less comfortable: gas prices are squeezing the very shoppers driving that growth. The stock barely moved on the news, leaving the market to sort out which story matters more. The headline numbers were hard to argue with. Revenue rose 33% to $1.17 billion for the three months ended June 30, ahead of the $1.11 billion analysts expected, while gross merchandise volume climbed 36% to $14.1 billion against a $13.39 billion estimate. Adjusted operating income reached $353 million, a 30% margin, and the GAAP operating margin expanded six percentage points to 12.6%. For the full fiscal year, GMV hit $50.2 billion, up from $36.7 billion, on $4.26 billion in revenue. The user base kept expanding too. Active consumers grew 21% to 27.8 million, and transactions per active consumer rose 20% to 7.0, while the Affirm Card's active user count more than doubled to 5.2 million. Newly appointed president Michael Linford, who moved into the role Thursday, Aug. 27, after nearly two years as chief operating officer, called it the eleventh straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%. Credit quality held up alongside that growth, with the 30-day delinquency rate improving to 2.5% from the 2.7% to 2.8% range of the prior three quarters, something Compass Point's Giuliano Bologna called evidence of "resilient credit performance." Affirm also deepened its Shopify tie-up, extending Shop Pay Installments into Australia after last year's UK expansion, part of what Linford described as Shopify "pulling us into a new market" as both a partner and shareholder. Susquehanna's James Friedman raised his price target to $110 from $105, calling the guidance for fiscal 2027 "exceptionally strong." Levchin's own commentary complicated the celebration. "The US consumer undoubtedly sees the higher gas prices, so can't, can't ignore that," he told CNBC, noting shoppers are increasingly turning to Affirm to manage costs across "all the various inflationary points." The national average gas price sat at $4.09 a gallon as of August 28, down from above $4.50 in May but still well above pre-Iran war levels, and it hasn't dipped below $3 since March 2. Levchin was direct about the risk: "I do think that sustained pressure on prices isn't great in the long term, and so can't ignore that either." That pressure sits inside a broader inflation picture. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.7% in July, with the Fed's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, up 0.2% for the month even as personal income and spending both grew. That leaves Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh weighing his next move at a September meeting. Meanwhile, not every analyst is fully on board with the stock. Morgan Stanley's James Faucette called Affirm "one of the best companies in our coverage" but kept his rating on the sidelines, arguing the valuation already looks "broadly in-line with peers on a growth-adjusted basis." Hedge fund ownership slipped from 61 funds to 57 in the most recent quarter, a modest pullback even as the business kept beating estimates. Short interest sits at 4.96% of the float, enough to suggest real skepticism without signaling a crowded bear trade. As of August 28, the stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 40.16 shows investors are still paying up for growth. That combination points to a market that likes the fundamentals but isn't chasing the stock aggressively. Affirm's quarter proved the growth engine is still running, with GMV, revenue, and user counts all outpacing expectations while credit quality actually improved. But Levchin's own words on gas prices and inflation are a reminder that the demand fueling that growth is tied to a consumer under some financial strain. For the bull case to keep playing out, that budgeting-driven demand needs to stay durable rather than turn into rising defaults. While we acknowledge the potential of AFRM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 10 Best Future Stocks to Buy Under $10 and 12 Best Performing Semiconductor Stocks to Invest In. Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.

PayPal lost 15% as Stripe and Advent abandoned their $50B bid, while Affirm surged 13% on record profits and a new Shopify Australia deal. Klarna jumped 5% on consolidation relief, but XLF's flat close signals these are name-specific moves, not a financials sector rotation. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PayPal didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Two of the biggest names in digital payments are ripping in opposite directions Friday morning, with the buy-now-pay-later cluster trading on unrelated single-name catalysts rather than a common thread. The broader financials sector is barely moving, which reinforces that this is a name-specific event and not a sector rotation. PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock is down 15% to $52.45 in early Friday trading after Bloomberg reported that Stripe and Advent International walked away from an acquisition of PayPal that had been valued at more than $50 billion. Meanwhile, Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) stock is up 13% to $87.56, a mirror-image move as investors reassess a competitive landscape that briefly looked like it might feature a Stripe-owned PayPal. Across the rest of the cluster, Klarna (NYSE:KLAR) stock is up 5% to $14.65 and Sezzle (NASDAQ:SEZL) stock is up 2% to $128.70, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLF) sits at $57.90 and is practically unchanged. The dispersion inside the buy-now-pay-later group tells you the cluster isn't trading as a bloc. Bloomberg first reported Stripe's interest in PayPal in February, and The Wall Street Journal reported in August that PayPal had found the initial bid insufficient and that the two sides were negotiating a higher price. Stripe and Advent are both privately held, so the withdrawal removes an obvious buyer without introducing any new public competitor. The takeover overhang that had lifted PayPal stock for months is gone. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PayPal didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. PayPal stock had risen more than 40% this quarter on a combination of a second-quarter earnings beat and takeover speculation, and one of those two supports has now disappeared. PayPal stock carries a market cap of roughly $52.59 billion, close to the offer that was just withdrawn, which is what makes today's air pocket feel especially sharp. The underlying business hasn't changed: PayPal's Q2 2026 report showed non-GAAP EPS of $1.38 versus $1.2776 expected, revenue of $8.68 billion, and total payment volume of $486.45 billion, up 10%. Affirm reported fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results after Thursday's close, covering the quarter ended June 30, 2026. CEO Max Levchin described the period as "our most profitable quarter ever, even without the tax allowance release" and stated that "the company is thriving and the core business is firing on all business." Affirm also promoted Michael Linford to president, a signal that management sees the growth runway extending well beyond the current quarter. Additionally, Affirm and Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) announced Thursday afternoon the launch of Shop Pay Installments in Australia, powered exclusively by Affirm, marking Affirm's return to the Australian market. Shopify is a payments and commerce heavyweight, and exclusive distribution through Shop Pay is the kind of channel that peer BNPL names would struggle to replicate. The vanishing threat of a Stripe-controlled PayPal only sharpens Affirm's competitive setup heading into the holiday season. Klarna stock and Sezzle stock are both green, but neither is riding the Affirm move dollar-for-dollar. Klarna is drifting higher on relief that the biggest checkout-brand consolidation scenario is off the table for now, while Sezzle is barely participating despite operating in the same lane. Same category, different price action. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF sitting essentially unmoved is the tell that this isn't a sector event. Payment fintechs live inside financials for index purposes, but XLF's flat move confirms banks, insurers, and diversified financials aren't reacting. Investors sizing their exposure around today's headlines can treat these moves as idiosyncratic rather than thematic. Traders can watch for whether PayPal stock finds a floor near its pre-speculation level from earlier in the quarter, since that reference frames how much of the recent rally was fundamentals versus takeover premium. Shareholders may want to keep an eye on whether Affirm's Shopify Australia rollout produces early volume disclosures over the next few quarters. Position sizing matters more than usual on days like this. Investors chasing Affirm stock at a 13% higher price should size their exposure to survive a mean-revert session, and anyone bottom-fishing PayPal stock should scale in rather than commit full size into a name that just lost its most obvious near-term catalyst. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PayPal didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Interested in Affirm Holdings, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Affirm reported its most profitable fiscal fourth quarter, excluding a tax valuation allowance, and plans to expand products, merchants and international operations. CEO Max Levchin will focus more on long-term product development, while Pat Suh and Michael Linford take on expanded leadership roles. The company sees significant growth potential in offline commerce and merchant expansion. Affirm is working to improve in-store approvals and payment reliability, while it remains available at only 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and about 10% of e-commerce merchants. Affirm highlighted rising adoption of Pay in 4, zero-interest financing and the Affirm Card, which has a 19% attach rate among active users and roughly twice the usage of a typical customer relationship. Management said it will prioritize transaction-level credit discipline and slow growth if needed to protect credit performance. 5 Ways to Play Prime Day That Aren’t Amazon Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) said its fiscal fourth quarter was its most profitable ever, excluding the release of a tax valuation allowance, as the buy now, pay later company pointed to continued momentum in its core business and outlined product, merchant and international expansion priorities. Founder and Chief Executive Officer Max Levchin also announced leadership changes intended to support execution and free more of his time for longer-term product development. Pat Suh was promoted to senior vice president and general manager of global markets, while Michael Linford was promoted to president. Levchin said he expects to focus more deeply on products and services that may not materially contribute until fiscal 2029 and beyond. → Quantum Computing Is Raising the Stakes for Cybersecurity: 5 Stocks to Watch Affirm's Google Deal Aims for Your Wallet Levchin said Affirm already offers consumers several products beyond its traditional point-of-sale installment loans, including the Affirm Card, an account product and financing for business purchases. While most of its offerings remain forms of credit, he said the company expects to keep expanding into additional products, verticals and use cases. A major opportunity is in-store commerce, where Levchin said the company sees significant room for growth despite operational complexities that differ from online checkout. About 30% of Affirm Card transactions currently occur offline, according to an analyst question, though offline activity remains a small share of total gross merchandise volume. → NVIDIA Reveals $21 Billion SpaceX Stake: Signal of Confidence or Circular Financing? Affirm: A Solid Footing or More Volatility Ahead? Levchin said the company’s innovation team is working to improve in-store approvals and payment delivery, including addressing weak connectivity in large stores, point-of-sale systems that may not support QR codes, and issues such as transaction-size adjustments. He said Affirm intends to introduce “uniquely Affirm-specific” ideas in coming quarters, though he did not provide details. “The bar for error is much lower” in stores than online, Levchin said, noting that consumers face greater inconvenience when a transaction fails at a physical checkout line. → Berkshire Boosts Its Bet: This AI Hyperscaler Is Now a Top-3 Holding Management said Affirm has substantial room to add merchants. Levchin noted that the company is available at 80 of the top 250 e-commerce sites and roughly 10% of e-commerce merchants overall. He described that opportunity as “enormous” greenfield rather than a sign of impediments to growth. Large merchant sales cycles can take time because retailers often operate complex or outdated technology systems, he said. Still, Levchin said merchants increasingly understand the value of adding Affirm at checkout, and the company expects its sales organization to continue signing merchants individually and, in some cases, in groups. Levchin also said the company is seeing faster movement from merchant launch to meaningful impact. He cited the recent launch of Crate & Barrel and said coordination around merchant onboarding, marketing and performance reporting has improved. Meanwhile, transactions per user per year have continued to rise, supported in part by expanding merchant availability and the Affirm Card. Management highlighted continued growth in Pay in X offerings, including Pay in 4 and longer-term zero-interest financing programs funded by merchants and other partners. Levchin said zero-interest financing broadens the appeal of Affirm’s services to consumers across the credit spectrum, including customers who could otherwise pay with cash or a credit card. Chief Financial Officer Rob O’Hare said Pay in 4 growth accelerated during the quarter after a large merchant with a relatively low average order value made the product an evergreen part of its financing program. He said Affirm tailors financing choices to a merchant’s products and basket sizes, and may offer different loan structures as transaction values increase. O’Hare also said direct-to-consumer products carry a higher proportion of interest-bearing loans, with more than 80% of that product set interest-bearing. The continued scaling of products such as the Affirm Card has contributed to a modest shift toward interest-bearing loans, even as the company has increased zero-percent offers within point-of-sale integrations. Levchin said the Affirm Card has a 19% attach rate relative to active users and generates roughly twice the usage of a typical customer relationship. The company expects both adoption and spending per cardholder to increase. He said Affirm plans to add card-specific features and benefits while maintaining the financing programs available through its standard point-of-sale experience. Levchin said Affirm does not view credit risk as a binary decision to broadly tighten or loosen lending. Instead, the company assesses transaction-level risk in real time and can adjust approvals across particular consumer groups, merchants or transaction categories. He said Affirm would slow growth before allowing a significant deterioration in credit outcomes. “Credit target is the input, not the output of the business,” Levchin said, emphasizing the company’s responsibility to capital-markets partners that fund its lending activity. O’Hare said the company’s outlook for revenue less transaction costs in fiscal 2027 reflects debt-capital-markets execution that has provided a funding-cost profile expected to continue through the year. He expects funding mix to remain broadly consistent with fiscal 2026 and said any shift toward interest-bearing products should be slight. On profitability, O’Hare said management has provided guidance for GAAP operating income and share count, while cautioning that the effective GAAP tax rate could be volatile. He said the company expects a run-rate GAAP tax rate in the mid- to high-20% range, though stock-based compensation and other GAAP-versus-tax differences may cause fluctuations. Affirm also expects gain-on-sale revenue to vary by quarter depending on non-consolidated asset-backed securitization activity. O’Hare said the company completed two such deals in fiscal 2026 and anticipates a broadly similar funding approach in fiscal 2027. Internationally, Levchin said the company is encouraged by its early progress in the United Kingdom. He said consumer and merchant feedback has been strong, citing the company’s fee-free approach, and said management has not seen a meaningful competitive response so far. Affirm Holdings, Inc is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale consumer lending and payments solutions for online and in-store purchases. Its core product is a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platform that enables consumers to split purchases into fixed, transparent installment loans with no hidden fees. Affirm offers a range of financing options through merchant integrations, a consumer-facing mobile app and virtual card capabilities, and tools for merchants to offer alternative payment methods at checkout. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Affirm Q4 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for August 2026.

Morgan Stanley said that most investors appear to expect an initial gross merchandise value growth outlook near 27% for both fiscal first quarter (Q1) and FY27, versus consensus at 28.5% and 29%, respectively. The analyst added that beyond Affirm's "typical outlook conservatism," the heightened skepticism about a below-Street outlook centers on Prime Day timing. Investors will be watching Affirm’s GMV details, credit delinquency data, and forward guidance closely in its upcoming release. Shares of Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) are up nearly 1% overnight late Wednesday as the buy now, pay later firm gears up to report its fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings after hours on Thursday. The stock is headed for its second week in the red, but some analysts believe that a strong print could prove positive for the company. See what 10M+ investors are talking about. Get the Stocktwits Daily Rip for what retail is watching right now, free to your inbox Morgan Stanley raised the price target on Affirm to $80 from $79 and kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating on the shares, implying an upside of about 4.6% from its last close. As per TheFly, Morgan Stanley said most investors appear to expect initial gross merchandise value growth near 27% for both fiscal first quarter (Q1) and FY27, versus consensus at 28.5% and 29%, respectively. The analyst added that beyond Affirm's "typical outlook conservatism," the heightened skepticism about a below-Street outlook centers on Prime Day timing. Amazon.com (AMZN) offers several major sales opportunities during the holiday season, including its Labor Day Sale, typically in the last week of August and first week of September, Prime Big Deal Days in October, and Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions from late November into early December. Amazon’s Prime Day sales often drive higher consumer spending and transaction volumes, potentially benefiting buy now, pay later firms as shoppers use installments to finance larger purchases. As per Adobe Analytics, consumers spent $26.4 billion online across U.S. retailers from June 23–26, which coincided with Amazon’s Prime Day sales, up 9.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, BNPL accounted for $2.1 billion of that spending, up 9.5% year over year, with BNPL orders representing 6.6% of online orders. Investors will be watching Affirm’s GMV details, credit delinquency data, and forward guidance closely in its upcoming release. Wall Street expects the company to report revenue of $1.11 billion for the quarter, up about 27% from the $876.42 million revenue posted in the comparable quarter of the previous year, according to data from Fiscal.ai. Earnings per share is expected to come in at $0.85, compared to $0.53 in Q4 2025, implying an expected rise of about 60%. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around AFRM stock was ‘bullish’ at the time of writing amid ‘normal’ message volumes. One user said, “$AFRM chat we are bullish on this earnings report.” However, another bearish user said, “Hard to be bullish in this space at this time going into earnings.” AFRM stock is up about 3% so far in 2026. For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com. Aashika Suresh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits' news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy. This article was originally published on StockTwits. Related: CRWV, NBIS, IREN Stocks Jump Overnight On Nvidia’s Blowout Q2 — But Palo Alto CEO Predicts Neocloud Price Crash Is Coming Nvidia Brushes Off ‘Circular Financing’ Fears After Massive Sales Beat: ‘We See It Differently’ Nvidia Brushes Off ‘Circular Financing’ Fears After Massive Sales Beat: ‘We See It Differently’

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) reported $1.17 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 33%. EPS of $4.62 for the same period compares to $0.20 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +5.23% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.33, the EPS surprise was +1300%. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance. As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately. Here is how Affirm Holdings performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $14057 billion versus $13408.94 billion estimated by four analysts on average. Total Transactions: 53 compared to the 47 average estimate based on three analysts. Active Consumers: 28 versus the three-analyst average estimate of 28. Transactions per Active Consumer: 7 compared to the 7 average estimate based on two analysts. Revenue- Merchant network: $302.38 million versus $306.12 million estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +26.3% change. Revenue- Card network: $85.16 million compared to the $75.87 million average estimate based on six analysts. The reported number represents a change of +26.9% year over year. Revenue- Interest income: $567.29 million versus $542.31 million estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +35.4% change. Revenue- Servicing income: $46.07 million versus $45.41 million estimated by six analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +36% change. Revenue- Gain on sales of loans: $165.07 million versus the six-analyst average estimate of $138 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +41.2%. View all Key Company Metrics for Affirm Holdings here>>> Shares of Affirm Holdings have returned +9.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.7% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) came out with quarterly earnings of $4.62 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.2 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1,300.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this operator of digital commerce platform would post earnings of $0.17 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.3, delivering a surprise of +76.47%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. Affirm Holdings, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry, posted revenues of $1.17 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.23%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $876.42 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Affirm Holdings shares have added about 2.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.1%. While Affirm Holdings has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Affirm Holdings was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.33 on $1.16 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.73 on $5.35 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Software is currently in the top 35% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. Another stock from the same industry, ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN), has yet to report results for the quarter ended July 2026. The results are expected to be released on September 8. This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +9.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. ServiceTitan Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $285.14 million, up 17.8% from the year-ago quarter. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) : Free Stock Analysis Report ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Affirm reported Q4 earnings of $4.62 per diluted share and revenue of $1.17 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $0.35 and $1.11 billion, respectively. The company expects fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, above the Street estimate of $1.16 billion. Stocktwits retail sentiment turned ‘extremely bullish’ as message volume climbed to ‘high’ following the results. Shares of Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) surged 9% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the financial technology company reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations. AFRM stock pared some of its gains but was still trading 7.5% higher at the time of writing. Earlier, the stock had ended the regular session 1.35% higher. See what 10M+ investors are talking about. Get the Stocktwits Daily Rip for what retail is watching right now, free to your inbox The San Francisco, California-based buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $4.62 per diluted share, up from $0.20 a year earlier and above the $0.85 expected by analysts polled by Fiscal.ai. Management said the fiscal fourth quarter was the company’s most profitable ever, even without tax allowance releases, which may help explain the significant gap between actual and expected EPS. Revenue came in at $1.17 billion, also topping the $1.11 billion analyst consensus, according to Fiscal.ai. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), which measures all transactions processed on Affirm’s platform during a specific period, jumped 36% to $14.1 billion. Active consumers grew 21% to 27.8 million, while transactions per active consumer increased 20% to 7.0. For the current quarter ending in September, Affirm expects revenue between $1.19 billion and $1.22 billion, above the $1.16 billion analyst estimate, according to Fiscal.ai. The company expects GMV of $13.7 billion to $14.0 billion for the quarter. For fiscal 2027, Affirm’s financial outlook includes GMV exceeding $64 billion. The company expects fiscal 2027 revenue to be similar to fiscal 2026 as a percentage of GMV, at about 8.49%. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AFRM improved to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume rose to ‘high’ from ‘normal.’ One retail trader described AFRM as “significantly undervalued” and said the stock could see some “manipulation over the next few days.” The trader remained bullish, adding, “I think this is going to $125-$150 in the next month or so.” Another retail investor stated that Affirm “tends to do most of its push during trading hours, not so much AH.” Still, following the latest results, the investor believes the stock “should be minimum at $100.” AFRM stock has gained a modest 3.4% year-to-date. Also See: Michael Burry Sells Half His NVDA Call ‘Hedge’ Within 24 Hours — Why He May Dump The Rest For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com. Aveek Bhowmik has no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. StockTwits' news team content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. For more, see our editorial policy. This article was originally published on StockTwits. Related: ASST Jumps Toward Best Month In Over A Year As BTC Holdings Grow, But Analyst Warns ‘Sell The Stock, Buy Bitcoin’ Why Is GAP Stock Jumping Nearly 14% Overnight? RKLB Stock Heads For Third Weekly Loss After 7 Bruising Sessions: SpaceX Raises Red Flag Over Iridium Deal