B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AFRM
AffirmBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary company evidence supports a still-constructive earnings read: strong GMV, RLTC, and operating margin expansion, plus raised Q4 and FY26 outlook. The checked secondary earnings coverage also framed the quarter as a beat versus consensus, which aligns with the positive deterministic prior.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
30+ day delinquencies excluding Peloton and Pay in X increased 29 basis points year over year to 2.8%, while allowance for credit losses rose to 6.0% of loans held for investment [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Momentum
75
Value
57
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $72.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $99.18
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -5.0
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 30+ day delinquencies excluding Peloton and Pay in X increased 29 basis points year over year to 2.8%, while allowance for credit losses rose to 6.0% of loans held for investment [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • An enterprise merchant's shift of pay-later volume to its own wallet solution substantially completed in FQ1'26, showing that partner concentration and surface ownership remain structural risks even as concentration improves [#8-K-2026-05-07].
- • The immediate market reaction stayed skeptical despite the beat-and-raise.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-12
May 12, 2026 Investor Forum could reset the post-earnings narrative
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
+24.5
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
-8.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 75.3 / Value 57.4 / Sentiment 55.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$24.64B
Beta
3.57
Shares Out
339.02M
P/E (TTM)
125.1
P/S (TTM)
7.71
P/FCF (TTM)
34.67
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
+3549.4%
Gross Margin
+76.5%
Op Margin
+21.0%
Net Debt
$5.23B
Current Ratio
15.31
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data