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AFL

AflacC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best near-term bull read would be another quarter where capital return remains strong and Japan sales momentum continues to offset runoff, because February disclosures already showed active buybacks and improving Japan sales trends. A clean Q1 print could reinforce the defensive-quality case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Aflac's concentration in Japan remains material, with the 2025 10-K indicating 53% of adjusted revenues and 76% of assets tied to Aflac Japan, leaving reported results sensitive to yen moves and regulatory-capital effects.
Momentum
26
Value
51
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $115.00 · Bull $124.00 · Bear $109.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $118.53
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +0.8
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aflac's concentration in Japan remains material, with the 2025 10-K indicating 53% of adjusted revenues and 76% of assets tied to Aflac Japan, leaving reported results sensitive to yen moves and regulatory-capital effects.
  • • As of April 29, 2026, checked primary sources had not yet confirmed the actual Q1 2026 earnings release or 8-K, so surprise and guidance risk remain open.
  • • The key bear issue is that this is still a monitoring setup, not a confirmed post-print upgrade: the checked primary sources did not yet provide the Q1 release, consensus beat/miss data, or analyst revisions as of April 29, 2026.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 2026 earnings release and webcast are the immediate decision point

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-21.1
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.1
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+8.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.2 / Value 51.3 / Sentiment 63.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$124.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$109.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$60.65B
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
501.34M
P/E (TTM)
14.6
P/S (TTM)
3.32
P/FCF (TTM)
42.00
Rev YoY
-1.0%
EPS YoY
+46.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.4%
Net Debt
$2.16B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data