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AESI

Atlas Energy SolutionsC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best post-print read is that the earnings miss/reset was already telegraphed by the earlier guidance cut, while the new Q2 EBITDA target near $50M, effectively sold-out Q2 volumes, and visible power-contract momentum can shift focus back to 2H26 recovery and the higher-value power narrative [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 11% in Q1 2026 from 15% in Q4 2025 and 25% in Q1 2025, showing how quickly profitability can compress when costs rise or mix weakens [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Momentum
36
Value
37
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.60Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $17.42
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d +20.3
Value37 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -6.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 11% in Q1 2026 from 15% in Q4 2025 and 25% in Q1 2025, showing how quickly profitability can compress when costs rise or mix weakens [#8-K-2026-05-04].
  • • Q1 plant operating costs were elevated after severe January winter weather disrupted West Texas activity, and management is relying on a Q2 normalization to rebuild margins [#8-K-2026-05-04].
  • • The weak quarter still showed a sharp earnings deterioration, margin compression, and weather/maintenance sensitivity at core plants; if Q2 improvement does not materialize quickly, the market may treat the power story as too early to offset proppant/logistics cyclicality and new convert dilution.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Convertible financing improves funding flexibility but adds dilution and execution pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.3
Δ21d
+29.9
Value
37
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-7.6
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 35.8 / Value 36.7 / Sentiment 70.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.6B
Beta
-
Shares Out
125M
P/E (TTM)
95.1
P/S (TTM)
1.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.43
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+347.4%
Gross Margin
+4.2%
Op Margin
-9.4%
Net Debt
$581.17M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data