RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AEP

American Electric PowerC
Nasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The bull case is that the Q1 print reinforced execution: earnings grew, guidance was reaffirmed, contracted load expanded to 63 GW, and the larger capital plan now points to nearly 11% rate-base growth and greater-than-9% operating earnings CAGR through 2030 [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Financing remains a key watch item: AEP disclosed $665 million of ATM equity issued year-to-date, growth equity needs embedded in the plan, and a need to keep FFO-to-debt in the 14%-15% target range.
Momentum
67
Value
46
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $136.00 · Bull $142.00 · Bear $122.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
46 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-28 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $140.02
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +4.7
Value46 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
46Non-qualifying2026-10-28 bmo
View setup

AEP had a positive 30-day EPS consensus revision and an established large-load growth opportunity, but the checked sources did not establish a positive revenue revision or revenue upside against consensus; the pre-event tape also did not verify the required close-location and volume thresholds. The setup is therefore incomplete despite a potentially supportive utility-sector session.

Screen as of 2026-10-28. Window 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-03.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 46 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Financing remains a key watch item: AEP disclosed $665 million of ATM equity issued year-to-date, growth equity needs embedded in the plan, and a need to keep FFO-to-debt in the 14%-15% target range.
  • • Large-load growth depends partly on interconnection timing and third-party generation availability, especially in Texas, creating slippage risk between signed demand and monetized rate base.
  • • The bear case is that much of the growth story now depends on interconnection timing, generation supplied by third parties, constructive regulatory treatment, and sizable financing execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Post-earnings beat with reaffirmed 2026 guidance, but mixed immediate tape

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+17.9
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-19.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 67.4 / Value 46.2 / Sentiment 56.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$142.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$136.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$122.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$70.93B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
544.4M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
2.87
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.22
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
-43.3%
Gross Margin
+30.9%
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$49.18B
Current Ratio
0.50
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data