B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADTN
ADTRANBNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 showed a real operating turn: revenue growth reaccelerated, gross and operating margins improved, operating cash flow was positive, and Q2 guidance suggests the recovery can continue if broadband and optical demand stay firm [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
ADTRAN had $201.3 million of 3.75% convertible senior notes outstanding, adding leverage sensitivity if the operating recovery fades [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
4
Value
65
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $14.75 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.70
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +1.0
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ADTRAN had $201.3 million of 3.75% convertible senior notes outstanding, adding leverage sensitivity if the operating recovery fades [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • ADTRAN plans to refinance or replace its Wells Fargo credit facility during Q2 2026, and covenant/cash-threshold execution is a meaningful near-term risk [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • The bear case is that ADTRAN still has limited margin cushion, only modest cash at $88.3 million, a planned near-term refinancing, ongoing obligations tied to its financing structure, and unresolved control-remediation and SEC-inquiry overhangs that can cap multiple expansion [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Planned Q2 2026 credit-facility refinancing is a key balance-sheet checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.2
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 3.8 / Value 64.9 / Sentiment 75.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$705.22M
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
81.48M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.6
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
25.41
Rev YoY
+6.1%
EPS YoY
-46.6%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
-0.2%
Net Debt
$121.26M
Current Ratio
1.79
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data