B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADTN
ADTRANANasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Optical networking strength and broader customer diversification could restore operating leverage if the delayed project proceeds and component and freight costs ease [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
A single-customer project delay pushed Q2 revenue below prior guidance; its timing and recovery remain uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
Momentum
12
Value
67
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.70
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +3.2
Value67 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -5.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A single-customer project delay pushed Q2 revenue below prior guidance; its timing and recovery remain uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
- • Elevated component and freight costs pressured Q2 margins, while Q3 non-GAAP operating-margin guidance is 1.5%–5.5% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • The Q2 miss and lower Q3 margin range challenge the prior recovery thesis.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02 · AMC
Q3 results test recovery after the Q2 guidance miss
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+5.0
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-26.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 12.3 / Value 67.0 / Sentiment 63.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$523.93M
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
81.48M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-12.3
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
25.41
Rev YoY
+6.1%
EPS YoY
-46.6%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
-0.2%
Net Debt
$121.26M
Current Ratio
1.79
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data