B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADT
ADTBNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Raised 2026 outlook, stronger operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow, and potential benefits from self-installation and digital service efficiency could support a rerating if retention improves. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
ADT Blu adoption and ambient-sensing monetization are not quantified in the supplied company evidence. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
35
Value
72
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.25 · Bull $8.20 · Bear $4.90Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.13
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d +6.3
Value72 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ADT Blu adoption and ambient-sensing monetization are not quantified in the supplied company evidence. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Adjusted income from continuing operations fell 6% year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Monitoring-services revenue declined, attrition worsened by 30 basis points, adjusted income fell, and additional secured borrowing increases the importance of durable cash generation.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Customer retention and recurring-revenue trend
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
35
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-17.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 35.3 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 47.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.04B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
730.56M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
1.31
P/FCF (TTM)
11.22
Rev YoY
+2.0%
EPS YoY
+8.9%
Gross Margin
+48.7%
Op Margin
+25.2%
Net Debt
$7.68B
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data