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ADT

ADTA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Raised 2026 outlook, strong free-cash-flow generation, shareholder returns, and gradual ADT+ or ADT Blu adoption could support modest upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.4.
What can break
ADT Blu, ADT+, AI service tools, and ambient-sensing initiatives may have slower adoption or weaker monetization than expected.
Momentum
56
Value
73
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.55 · Bull $8.25 · Bear $6.55Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.23
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +2.0
Value73 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +11.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ADT Blu, ADT+, AI service tools, and ambient-sensing initiatives may have slower adoption or weaker monetization than expected.
  • • Customer attrition and competitive pressure could constrain recurring-revenue growth.
  • • Revenue growth is limited, adjusted and GAAP income declined year over year, attrition remains a management focus, and the new-platform initiatives have not yet demonstrated meaningful monetization.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Post-Q2 outlook and cash-flow digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-11.4
Value
73
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.4
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 55.6 / Value 72.5 / Sentiment 71.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$7.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.25B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
730.56M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
1.31
P/FCF (TTM)
11.22
Rev YoY
+2.0%
EPS YoY
+8.9%
Gross Margin
+48.7%
Op Margin
+25.2%
Net Debt
$7.68B
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data