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ADBE

AdobeF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Adobe successfully monetizes AI features and drives higher ARPU from enterprise creative and marketing customers; margins expand as incremental revenue scales, justifying a >25% premium to current prices.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Digital ad/marketing spend downturn
Momentum
60
Value
67
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $1.99 · Bull $2.59 · Bear $1.39Analysis 2025-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $266.79
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -6.4
Value67 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bearish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-11.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Digital ad/marketing spend downturn
  • • Execution risk on enterprise sales
  • • Slowing marketing spend or failure to monetize AI features could depress Experience Cloud revenue and push multiple compression, producing significant downside from current levels.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Quarterly earnings / guidance update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-26.3
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 59.5 / Value 67.0 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.59
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$1.99
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.39
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$100.98B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
397.5M
P/E (TTM)
19.8
P/S (TTM)
5.84
P/FCF (TTM)
14.96
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+8.0%
Gross Margin
+88.8%
Op Margin
+36.7%
Net Debt
$53M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data