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ADAM

Adamas TrustB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 EAD grew 36.4% year over year, book value increased 1.8% quarter over quarter, and the common dividend rose to $0.27. Continued portfolio growth and funding execution could narrow the stock's book-value discount.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Analyst-target coverage and forward earnings visibility are thin.
Momentum
25
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.25 · Bull $9.65 · Bear $6.25Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.65
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d +2.4
Value62 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst-target coverage and forward earnings visibility are thin.
  • • Future EAD may not cover the common dividend; preferred dividends also represent a senior distribution obligation.
  • • Recourse leverage of 5.5x leaves results exposed to funding costs, credit deterioration and asset-value changes.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Test of Q2 earnings and book-value gains

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-3.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-33.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 24.8 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 57.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$701.96M
Beta
1.18
Shares Out
89.88M
P/E (TTM)
38.9
P/S (TTM)
0.99
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
29.53
Rev YoY
+34.5%
EPS YoY
-1318.1%
Gross Margin
+85.7%
Op Margin
+82.7%
Net Debt
$10.67B
Current Ratio
0.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data