B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ADAG
AdageneBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The April 2026 company release improved the story: Adagene reported a 29% ORR in the 20 mg/kg cohort, manageable tolerability, enrollment ahead of plan, and cash runway into early 2028. If 2026 combination updates and the 1H 2027 randomized readout confirm durability, the market can justify a higher probability of a registrational path.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Clinical-stage cash burn keeps dilution risk alive if partnerships, data timing, or trial expansion slip.
Momentum
87
Value
41
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.25 · Bull $7.50 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-06-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.29
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical-stage cash burn keeps dilution risk alive if partnerships, data timing, or trial expansion slip.
- • Coverage is thin and the analyst target set is incomplete, limiting confidence in valuation support.
- • This remains a small, clinical-stage MSS CRC story with no commercial revenue and limited sample sizes.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
FY2025 update improved clinical credibility and runway
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-5.2
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 87.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 71.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$257.16M
Beta
0.72
Shares Out
67.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-10.2
P/S (TTM)
812.92
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-10.65
Rev YoY
-87.3%
EPS YoY
+25.7%
Gross Margin
+94.2%
Op Margin
-240.3%
Net Debt
-$68.26M
Current Ratio
5.02
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data