B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ACRE
Ares Commercial Real EstateCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Improved funding conditions and stable asset-level cash flows support recovery toward the analyst high (~$6.00), restoring dividend confidence and narrowing spread to peers.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-06 · BMO.
What can break
borrower defaults / credit losses
Momentum
13
Value
40
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.97 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-02-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-06 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-30
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.00
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -0.7
Value40 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-06 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • borrower defaults / credit losses
- • dividend reduction or suspension
- • Rising rates or credit deterioration force dividend cuts and distressed asset dispositions, pushing the stock toward analyst lows around $4.00.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-06 · BMO
Quarterly earnings / dividend update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-8.8
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
81
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.8 / Value 40.0 / Sentiment 81.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$4.97
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$189.75M
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
55.48M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-208.5
P/S (TTM)
1.97
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.85
Rev YoY
-873.8%
EPS YoY
-138.7%
Gross Margin
+78.6%
Op Margin
+51.4%
Net Debt
$980.3M
Current Ratio
0.21
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data