B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ACRE
Ares Commercial Real EstateCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Improved funding conditions and stable asset-level cash flows support recovery toward the analyst high (~$6.00), restoring dividend confidence and narrowing spread to peers.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
borrower defaults / credit losses
Momentum
13
Value
40
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.97 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-02-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.00
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -3.1
Value40 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • borrower defaults / credit losses
- • dividend reduction or suspension
- • Rising rates or credit deterioration force dividend cuts and distressed asset dispositions, pushing the stock toward analyst lows around $4.00.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
Quarterly earnings / dividend update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-13.9
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
81
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.6 / Value 40.0 / Sentiment 80.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$4.97
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$189.75M
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
55.48M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-208.5
P/S (TTM)
1.97
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.85
Rev YoY
-873.8%
EPS YoY
-138.7%
Gross Margin
+78.6%
Op Margin
+51.4%
Net Debt
$980.3M
Current Ratio
0.21
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data