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ACIC

American Coastal InsuranceB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 result appears to have exceeded the stored Zacks preview, while underwriting metrics remained strong. Book value per share increased 20.2% year over year, management cited a rating upgrade and improved reinsurance protection, and E&S expansion could offset weaker Florida pricing over time.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.
What can break
Catastrophe exposure, reinsurance economics, and execution of E&S expansion remain material uncertainties.
Momentum
11
Value
64
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.75 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $8.25Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.00
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -0.5
Value64 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe exposure, reinsurance economics, and execution of E&S expansion remain material uncertainties.
  • • Florida property pricing normalization could reduce premium growth and earnings power.
  • • The earnings beat was accompanied by lower premiums, revenue, core income, and core ROE versus the prior year.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 earnings beat with weaker year-over-year earnings

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-6.0
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+5.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.1 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 76.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$457.99M
Beta
-0.59
Shares Out
48.46M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM)
4.63
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
-16.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+43.3%
Net Debt
-$140.37M
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data