B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$37.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ACHC
Acadia HealthcareBNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The positive revision is mainly forward-looking: 2026 adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, operating cash flow, and capex guidance improved, while capacity expansion and occupancy ramps could support second-half recovery [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
What can break
Medicaid financing changes, payer mix, and reimbursement pressure could weigh on admissions, pricing, and specialty-facility performance [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Momentum
31
Value
52
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.00 · Bull $37.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.39
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d -0.3
Value52 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Medicaid financing changes, payer mix, and reimbursement pressure could weigh on admissions, pricing, and specialty-facility performance [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
- • Net leverage was 4.1x adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026, limiting flexibility if operating performance weakens [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
- • The quarter itself was mixed: revenue was approximately flat, adjusted EBITDA fell 26%, adjusted EPS fell 54%, Specialty Treatment revenue declined 8.4%, and PLGL reserves remained a material drag.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 results and upgraded 2026 cash-flow guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-12.5
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-2.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 30.6 / Value 52.3 / Sentiment 76.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.79B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
93.1M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-20.08
Rev YoY
-0.4%
EPS YoY
-64.1%
Gross Margin
+16.3%
Op Margin
+10.1%
Net Debt
$2.52B
Current Ratio
1.57
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data