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ACHC

Acadia HealthcareC
Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher July guidance floors, stronger projected operating cash flow and lower planned capital spending offer a path to improved free cash flow if new facilities fill and liability costs stabilize [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
What can break
Further professional and general liability reserve increases could erode earnings and cash flow; Q2 included a $28.6 million reserve adjustment [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Momentum
82
Value
52
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-04 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.79
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +2.9
Value52 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +6.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Further professional and general liability reserve increases could erode earnings and cash flow; Q2 included a $28.6 million reserve adjustment [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
  • • Net leverage was 4.1x adjusted EBITDA at June 30, limiting flexibility if cash-flow guidance slips [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $149.2 million from $201.8 million a year earlier.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04 · AMC

Derivative-settlement approval hearing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+11.1
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
-8.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 81.9 / Value 52.0 / Sentiment 49.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$2.74B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
93.1M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.72
Rev YoY
-0.4%
EPS YoY
-64.1%
Gross Margin
+16.3%
Op Margin
+10.1%
Net Debt
$2.52B
Current Ratio
1.57
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data