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ACEL

Accel EntertainmentA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, location count and terminal count all grew year over year. Chicago activation and Illinois route productivity could extend growth if licenses convert into live locations and per-location economics hold.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA excludes items that affect GAAP earnings and cash generation; Q2 free cash flow was affected by the tax-credit purchase. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
34
Value
67
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.00
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d -7.8
Value67 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA excludes items that affect GAAP earnings and cash generation; Q2 free cash flow was affected by the tax-credit purchase. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • CEO succession and board expansion create an execution-monitoring point, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#8-K-2026-08-11]
  • • Chicago timing depends on licensing and connection, while Q2 free cash flow was $10 million after a $17 million tax-credit purchase.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03

November 3 Q3 results test operating growth

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
34
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-22.3
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
-7.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 33.9 / Value 66.8 / Sentiment 59.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$893.13M
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
81.19M
P/E (TTM)
22.7
P/S (TTM)
0.73
P/FCF (TTM)
24.68
Rev YoY
+9.6%
EPS YoY
+78.1%
Gross Margin
+25.5%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$332.79M
Current Ratio
2.47
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data