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ABR

Arbor Realty TrustB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The August funding transaction, discounted-share repurchases and higher agency origination volume could support recovery if credit costs abate and fee economics stabilize. The packet's deterministic prior is positive, but the operating evidence does not yet establish that turn.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Agency origination growth did not prevent the Q2 gain-on-sales margin from declining versus Q1. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
Momentum
5
Value
63
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.50 · Bull $5.25 · Bear $1.75Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.25
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d -5.2
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Agency origination growth did not prevent the Q2 gain-on-sales margin from declining versus Q1. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
  • • Dividend coverage remains uncertain: Q2 distributable earnings of $0.10 per share, or $0.15 excluding specified realized losses, were below the $0.17 declared dividend. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-31]
  • • Q2 produced a $37.3 million GAAP loss, down sharply from year-earlier profit, and distributable earnings fell to $0.10 per share versus the $0.17 declared dividend.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Credit losses and dividend coverage

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-16.2
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
68
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+29.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 5.2 / Value 62.9 / Sentiment 68.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$563.41M
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
186.56M
P/E (TTM)
10.9
P/S (TTM)
1.27
P/FCF (TTM)
24.60
Rev YoY
-3.0%
EPS YoY
-257.6%
Gross Margin
+94.2%
Op Margin
+71.0%
Net Debt
$10.5B
Current Ratio
0.55
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data