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ABR

Arbor Realty TrustC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The servicing platform, dividend, repurchases, and securitization liquidity offer support, while the $5.09 anchor price is below the reported $6.25 median analyst target. Target-count coverage is unavailable, limiting confidence.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Low analyst coverage and unavailable target-count data reduce the reliability of consensus valuation signals.
Momentum
22
Value
61
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $4.85 · Bull $6.25 · Bear $3.80Analysis 2026-07-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $5.88
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -7.7
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Low analyst coverage and unavailable target-count data reduce the reliability of consensus valuation signals.
  • • Q2 earnings, guidance, and post-release market reaction are not yet available.
  • • Q1 distributable earnings and GAAP income were materially below the prior-year period, agency origination volume fell versus Q4, structured-loan runoff exceeded originations, and legacy-asset losses remain a concern.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Q2 2026 earnings release is the next binary checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.7
Δ21d
+2.5
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.6
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 22.2 / Value 60.7 / Sentiment 63.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$6.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$4.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$932.79M
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
186.56M
P/E (TTM)
10.9
P/S (TTM)
1.27
P/FCF (TTM)
24.60
Rev YoY
-3.0%
EPS YoY
-257.6%
Gross Margin
+94.2%
Op Margin
+71.0%
Net Debt
$10.5B
Current Ratio
0.55
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data