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ABNB

AirbnbD
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that Airbnb delivered a clean top-line beat, raised 2026 guidance, showed strong North America and Latin America momentum, and highlighted monetization levers from fee simplification, insurance programs, services, experiences, hotels, and AI efficiency. Secondary analyst-aggregation data after the print showed several higher price targets on May 8, 2026, suggesting the buy side did not read the quarter as thesis-breaking.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
What can break
Management expects tougher second-half comparisons tied to the 2025 Reserve Now, Pay Later rollout, which could make growth acceleration harder to sustain.
Momentum
73
Value
47
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $145.00 · Bull $165.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
36 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-05 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-31 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $185.29
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -3.7
Value47 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +10.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
36Non-qualifying2026-11-05 amc
View setup

ABNB has a small positive whisper-versus-consensus gap and recent company guidance describes strong revenue growth, but the guidance midpoint is slightly below the checked revenue consensus. The stock fell about 4.4% over five sessions, had no close above the 0.75 close-location threshold in the latest three sessions, and no confirmed 1.5x volume session; it does not qualify despite a supportive XLY tape.

Screen as of 2026-10-31. Window 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 36 / non-qualifying.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management expects tougher second-half comparisons tied to the 2025 Reserve Now, Pay Later rollout, which could make growth acceleration harder to sustain.
  • • Middle East conflict drove elevated cancellations in EMEA and Asia Pacific and is expected to create roughly a 100 bps headwind to Q2 nights growth.
  • • The bear read is that the quarter was still mixed: profit missed, management flagged macro and geopolitical uncertainty, cancellations rose in EMEA and Asia Pacific, and nights growth is expected to decelerate in Q2.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · AMC

Raised 2026 outlook after Q1 revenue outperformance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
+16.4
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.2
Δ21d
-1.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 73.2 / Value 46.7 / Sentiment 45.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$98.43B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
589.59M
P/E (TTM)
32.3
P/S (TTM)
6.90
P/FCF (TTM)
17.96
Rev YoY
+16.5%
EPS YoY
+33.1%
Gross Margin
+72.6%
Op Margin
+21.2%
Net Debt
-$8.78B
Current Ratio
1.41
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data