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ABG

Asbury Automotive GroupB
NYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 adjusted EPS beat, 16% growth in used-retail gross profit per unit, continued buybacks, and progress toward completing Tekion create a plausible path to better efficiency and per-share value. The technology rollout is the main medium-term upside driver.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Auto demand, interest rates, tariffs, inventory, and manufacturer conditions may affect results.
Momentum
62
Value
66
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $245.44 · Bull $275.00 · Bear $200.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $252.70
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +22.6
Value66 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Auto demand, interest rates, tariffs, inventory, and manufacturer conditions may affect results.
  • • Post-earnings analyst revision data is limited, reducing confidence in the target-price signal.
  • • The beat did not remove operating concerns: adjusted earnings declined year over year, used-retail revenue fell, revenue missed consensus, and leverage remains meaningful.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q2 adjusted EPS beat, but revenue missed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.6
Δ21d
+29.2
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+3.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 62.3 / Value 66.0 / Sentiment 65.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$275.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$245.44
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.74B
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
17.95M
P/E (TTM)
8.4
P/S (TTM)
0.26
P/FCF (TTM)
7.42
Rev YoY
+0.3%
EPS YoY
-19.3%
Gross Margin
+16.6%
Op Margin
+5.1%
Net Debt
$6.06B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data