B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$380.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AAPL
AppleCNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 revenue reached $109.4 billion, up 16% year over year, with record June-quarter iPhone, Mac and Services revenue and an all-time-high installed base. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
CEO transition, China exposure, trade policy, litigation and regulatory developments remain execution and valuation risks.
Momentum
82
Value
50
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $328.01 · Bull $380.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
41 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $334.09
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +5.7
Value50 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -2.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
41Non-qualifying2026-11-02 amc
Apple’s Nov. 2 report date is confirmed and its EPS estimate edged up over four weeks, but Zacks showed 0.0% Earnings ESP, revenue estimates did not show a clear upward revision or upside versus guidance, and checked tape lacked the required recent accumulation evidence; supply constraints and cost pressures temper the case.
Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.
Confirming evidence
- • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • News driver: Apple adds U.S. titanium supplier for iPhone Duo as supply stays tight.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO transition, China exposure, trade policy, litigation and regulatory developments remain execution and valuation risks.
- • Further memory-cost inflation could compress product margins after carry-in inventory benefits fade.
- • Stored third-party earnings coverage reported that a roughly 7.4% share-price decline followed weaker current-quarter revenue guidance and higher memory costs, despite the Q3 beat.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02 · AMC
Dividend payment and capital-return signal
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
+5.5
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.9
Δ21d
-13.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 81.7 / Value 49.9 / Sentiment 52.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$328.01
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.02T
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
14.59B
P/E (TTM)
36.0
P/S (TTM)
9.49
P/FCF (TTM)
47.38
Rev YoY
+16.4%
EPS YoY
+29.1%
Gross Margin
+48.7%
Op Margin
+33.2%
Net Debt
$57.68B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data