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AAL

American Airlines GroupB
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record revenue, strong premium and corporate demand, and continued commercial execution could support margin recovery if fares and mix continue to offset fuel pressure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Fuel expense remains highly volatile and is expected to increase materially year over year in Q3.
Momentum
9
Value
53
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $18.50 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-08-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.76
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -15.5
Value53 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fuel expense remains highly volatile and is expected to increase materially year over year in Q3.
  • • Recent officer open-market sales are a secondary sentiment risk, not evidence of operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-03].
  • • Fuel inflation, labor and other operating costs, and weaker-than-expected earnings guidance may prevent strong revenue growth from translating into durable earnings improvement.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-13

Q3 results will test fuel absorption and margin conversion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.5
Δ21d
-29.1
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-12.1
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+0.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 8.5 / Value 52.8 / Sentiment 83.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.55B
Beta
1.25
Shares Out
661.97M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM)
11.85
Rev YoY
+16.3%
EPS YoY
-88.2%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+1.8%
Net Debt
$29.4B
Current Ratio
0.53
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data