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AAL

American Airlines GroupD
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Premium and corporate revenue gains could persist and offset more of the fuel headwind than American's July outlook implied. Q3 results are the near-term test [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23] (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6201/000000620126000051/a8kerexhibit991q2-26.htm).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
News driver: American Airlines expects deeper 2026 loss on pricier fuel despite record revenue.
What can break
A Q3 result or updated outlook below the July revenue and EPS ranges could reset expectations.
Momentum
25
Value
53
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.95
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -7.0
Value53 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: American Airlines expects deeper 2026 loss on pricier fuel despite record revenue.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A Q3 result or updated outlook below the July revenue and EPS ranges could reset expectations.
  • • Fuel-price volatility: American's July Q3 outlook assumed approximately $3.75 per gallon [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23] (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6201/000000620126000051/a8kerexhibit991q2-26.htm).
  • • Q2 operating margin fell to 2.7% from 7.9% a year earlier despite record revenue, illustrating weak earnings conversion under fuel pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23] (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6201/000000620126000051/a8kerexhibit991q2-26.htm).

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

October 22 results will test whether fares absorbed fuel costs

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.0
Δ21d
-5.3
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
36
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-29.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 25.2 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 36.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$8.08B
Beta
1.25
Shares Out
662.62M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
0.19
P/FCF (TTM)
11.85
Rev YoY
+16.3%
EPS YoY
-88.2%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+1.8%
Net Debt
$29.4B
Current Ratio
0.53
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data