AA

AlcoaB

NYSE / Materials

At close

2026-06-02

Current thesis

Primary evidence improved after the April 16, 2026 earnings release: debt reduction is continuing, San Ciprián restart execution is progressing, and management still expects a second-quarter benefit from shipment catch-up and lower restart costs [#8-K-2026-04-16]. If those operational benefits land cleanly, the stock can justify trading above the packet's median target for longer.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Momentum

What changed

13 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-06-02.

What can break

Aluminum and alumina earnings remain highly sensitive to realized prices, regional premiums, and input costs.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

13 · Net Bullish

AI TargetsBase $62.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $48.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-06-02

Fundamentals

As of 2026-06-01 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-06-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-06-02

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Bullish

Target $64.16

Why

Momentum82 · Δ7d +5.4

Value58 · Δ7d -1.4

Sentiment37 · Δ7d -4.6

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals

Momentum

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+5.4

Δ21d

+41.9

Value

32% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-1.4

Δ21d

-2.9

Sentiment

33% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-4.6

Δ21d

-8.3

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 82.2 / Value 57.8 / Sentiment 37.2

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-06-01

Market Cap

$20.52B

Beta

1.90

Shares Out

258.96M

P/E (TTM)

14.0

P/S (TTM)

1.24

P/FCF (TTM)

38.52

Rev YoY

+3.1%

EPS YoY

+131.1%

Gross Margin

+18.4%

Op Margin

+3.0%

Net Debt

$1.46B

Current Ratio

1.56

As of 2026-06-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology