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AA

AlcoaB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Pinjarra stabilization, six consecutive quarters of aluminum production gains and $472 million of Q3 free cash flow support a recovery case. Adjusted EPS of $1.82 exceeded MarketBeat's $1.51 consensus; successful Massena monetization and an on-time AliGroup close could add value.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Alcoa forecasts roughly $60 million of combined unfavorable Q4 aluminum-segment cost effects from raw materials, maintenance and alumina. Alcoa Q3 release
Momentum
20
Value
65
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $40.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.21
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d +3.3
Value65 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Alcoa forecasts roughly $60 million of combined unfavorable Q4 aluminum-segment cost effects from raw materials, maintenance and alumina. Alcoa Q3 release
  • • AliGroup regulatory and integration risks remain; completed financing increases interest expense before acquisition benefits are realized. Alcoa Q3 release
  • • Q3 revenue of $3.70 billion missed MarketBeat's $3.77 billion consensus, while adjusted EBITDA declined from $901 million in Q2.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Q4 output must overcome disclosed cost headwinds

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+6.0
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
-1.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 19.7 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 59.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$10.21B
Beta
1.90
Shares Out
263.91M
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
38.52
Rev YoY
+28.6%
EPS YoY
+142.6%
Gross Margin
+14.2%
Op Margin
+11.7%
Net Debt
$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.53
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data