AA
AlcoaCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
Primary company evidence supports a constructive operating setup into Q2: Q1 profitability improved on higher aluminum prices, management said shipment timing impacts should be realized in Q2, and San Ciprián restart progress gives Alcoa a real company-specific recovery lever [#SEC-8K-2026-04-16].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Alumina shipment normalization is not assured after Australia delays, seasonal maintenance, and disruption from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle [#SEC-8K-2026-04-16].
Momentum
8
Value
64
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $44.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.05
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +0.4
Value64 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
8
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-21.4
Value
64
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+3.0
Sentiment
69
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+21.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 7.6 / Value 64.0 / Sentiment 69.0
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$11.61B
Beta
1.90
Shares Out
263.89M
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
38.52
Rev YoY
-6.4%
EPS YoY
-24.2%
Gross Margin
+11.9%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology