B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AA
AlcoaBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary company evidence supports a constructive operating setup into Q2: Q1 profitability improved on higher aluminum prices, management said shipment timing impacts should be realized in Q2, and San Ciprián restart progress gives Alcoa a real company-specific recovery lever [#SEC-8K-2026-04-16].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.8.
What can break
Alumina shipment normalization is not assured after Australia delays, seasonal maintenance, and disruption from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle [#SEC-8K-2026-04-16].
Momentum
33
Value
63
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $44.00Analysis 2026-06-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $66.61
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -14.6
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +3.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Alumina shipment normalization is not assured after Australia delays, seasonal maintenance, and disruption from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle [#SEC-8K-2026-04-16].
- • Only CENX and NHYDY are clean direct aluminum operating comparators in the available evidence; broader Materials peers are weaker context and reduce relative-valuation confidence.
- • The counterpoint is that Q1 still showed weaker alumina and aluminum shipments, explicit tariff and energy headwinds, inventory-related working-capital pressure, and exposure to external disruptions.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-16
Cash and balance-sheet follow-through need to offset working-capital pressure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.6
Δ21d
+10.1
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 32.6 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 75.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.65B
Beta
1.90
Shares Out
263.91M
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
38.52
Rev YoY
+28.6%
EPS YoY
+142.6%
Gross Margin
+14.2%
Op Margin
+11.7%
Net Debt
$1.01B
Current Ratio
1.53
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data