pulse

macro

1. As of Jun 22; latest visible COT Jun 9: SocGen trend still positive but soft: SG CTA +0.10% d / +7.55% YTD, SG Trend +0.08% / +7.16%, STTI -0.60%. (Société Générale<https://wholesale.banking.societegenerale.com/fileadmin/indices_feeds/ti_screen/index.html?utm_source=chatgpt...

Pulse/2026-06-22 17:47 ET/email body

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Snapshot

pulse

As of Jun 22; latest visible COT Jun 9: SocGen trend still positive but soft: SG CTA +0.10% d / +7.55% YTD, SG Trend +0.08% / +7.16%, STTI -0.60%. (Société Générale)
Equities: Public GS/BofA snippets say CTA models are still net-long but de-risking; COT LF disagrees, with E-mini S&P -452k net, though +49k less short WoW, and Nasdaq still short. (Yahoo Finance)
Equity triggers: BofA flags another ~3% S&P 500 and ~5% NDX drop as systematic-selling risk; SPX gamma cited as positive around 7320-7625. (Investing.com Australia)
Rates: Still short duration: COT LF 2Y -1.68M, 5Y -2.23M, 10Y -1.98M, Ultra 10Y -260k; 2Y/5Y shorts covered WoW, 10Y stayed heavy. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Rate triggers: No fresh public UST hard levels found; BofA says falling yields have moved buy-to-cover triggers closer, with a dovish Fed the obvious catalyst. (Investing.com Australia)
FX: USD short got worse: DXY LF -13.7k, EUR flipped/deteriorated to -17.4k after -29.4k WoW, JPY deeper short at -99.8k. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Commodities: MM still long but fading in gold +105.9k and copper +69.2k; WTI physical +94.7k stays long, wheat deeper short -77.6k, soybean oil still very long +131.4k after liquidation. (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
ETF proxies: DBMF $30.92 and KMLM $27.82 are not confirming a trend crash, just chop and cross-asset dispersion.
Top risks: SPX/NDX trigger breach, Treasury short-covering shock, crowded USD/JPY plus oil/gold reversal from geopolitics.
Blunt take: CTA-model support is still there, but the bid is conditional now, not a safety net.

Sentiment Read-Through

Sentiment -5near termtentative

Impacted symbols

XLE XLB XME XLF XLU XLRE XLK

Impacted sectors

EnergyMaterialsFinancialsUtilitiesReal EstateEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)Technology Hardware & Equipment

Actionable read-throughs

Energy-55

Deterministic mapping: lower crude prices primarily read through to Energy equities.

XLE-55

Deterministic ETF proxy: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Energy read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

Materials-45

Deterministic mapping: weaker industrial or precious-metals pricing most directly weighs on Materials equities.

XLB-45

Deterministic ETF proxy: Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Materials read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

XME-38

Deterministic ETF proxy: XME is the durable broad Metals & Mining ETF proxy for metals-price read-throughs.

Financials-30

Deterministic mapping: lower Treasury yields can weigh on Financials via net-interest-margin pressure.

XLF-30

Deterministic ETF proxy: Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Financials read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

Utilities+40

Deterministic mapping: lower yields tend to support duration-sensitive Utilities.

XLU+40

Deterministic ETF proxy: Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Utilities read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

Real Estate+40

Deterministic mapping: lower yields tend to support Real Estate valuation multiples.

XLRE+40

Deterministic ETF proxy: Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Real Estate read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)+45

Deterministic mapping: lower yields support REIT financing conditions and relative income appeal.

Technology Hardware & Equipment+18

Deterministic mapping: a weaker dollar can modestly help multinational hardware revenue translation.

XLK+18

Deterministic ETF proxy: Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF is the durable broad ETF proxy for Technology Hardware & Equipment read-throughs when no more specific issuer is justified.

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Snapshot

Sentiment Read-Through

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