Base case: $150 (p=50%)
Target spread vs base: +10% / -20%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $165 (p=30%)Base Target: $150 (p=50%)Bear Target: $120 (p=20%)
Commentary
The Q3 print improved the prior positive thesis, consistent with the deterministic positive directional prior and 0.685 thesis-change score, but this T+1 view remains provisional. Shares were reported down 1.58% pre-market on margin concerns before the October 15 session closed about 3.2% higher; that is a reversal, not proof the earnings reaction will persist. No verified post-print analyst revision was available. Social, options, short-interest and employee measures are unavailable; zero values in the sentiment object denote unavailable data, not neutral observations.
