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AI Stock Memo: ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) - RankAlpha

ZTO

AI Memo

ZTO Express (Cayman)

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 Earnings Release • 2026-03-24

Base target: $23 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Prolonged volume weakness, spot pricing pressure or rising opex compress margins and trigger re‑rating toward lower analyst targets.

Invalidation

Break below $18 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful densification, automation and higher‑value services drive sustained margin expansion and multiple re‑rating; revenue growth outperforms consensus.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$23

p=60%

Bull target

$27

p=20%

Bear target

$18

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Seasonal volume & pricing swing
Network densification & monetization
Successful densification, automation and higher‑value services drive sustained margin expansion and multiple re‑rating; revenue growth outperforms consensus.

BearKey bullets

China e‑commerce volume slowdown reducing parcel demand
Price competition or higher input costs compressing margins
Regulatory or cross‑border disruptions affecting volumes or liquidity

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 Earnings Release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $23 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +18% / -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $27 (p=20%)Base Target: $23 (p=60%)Bear Target: $18 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is neutral: analyst median sits near the current price, balancing recovery hopes and China macro risk. Near term, earnings and seasonal volume variability are the most likely catalysts to shift sentiment.

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Successful densification, automation and higher‑value services drive sustained margin expansion and multiple re‑rating; revenue growth outperforms consensus.

Bear Case

Prolonged volume weakness, spot pricing pressure or rising opex compress margins and trigger re‑rating toward lower analyst targets.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Seasonal volume & pricing swing
Network densification & monetization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.92

Range (USD)

$18.40 - $42.00

Count

Query: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc Class A ADR (ZTO) analyst consensus price target high low average

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Analyst B of A Securities. Rating Action Maintains. Rating Neutral. Price Action Raises. Price Target 19 -> 22. View More. Statistics: ZTO. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 18 analysts, the average 12-month price target for ZTO Express Cayman is 23.83603811, with a high estimate of 27.60366161 and ...
Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for ZTO Express ...
Search result #3
... analysts, the average price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. comes to $22.92. The forecasts range from a low of $18.40 to a high of $25.00. The average ...
Extracted: $22.92, $18.40, $25.00Open source
ZTO Express (Cayman) Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Benzinga
Search result #4
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc has a consensus price target of $27.03 based on the ratings of 7 analysts. The high is $42 issued by Goldman Sachs on April 25, 2023.
Extracted: $27.03, $42.00Open source
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #5
20 analysts have analysed ZTO and the average price target is 24.7 USD. This implies a price increase of 11.52% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $24.70Open source
ZTO Express stock forecast - TipRanks
Search result #6
Based on analyst ratings, Zto Express (Cayman), Inc. Sponsored Adr Class A's 12-month average price target is 26.00. What is ZTO's upside potential, based ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-24
FY2025 Earnings Release
FY2025 results and guidance will reprice expectations for volume, margins and unit economics; report expected 2026-03-24 [#SERP-9].
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Seasonal volume & pricing swing
2026-05-07
Post-peak seasonal volume declines and spot pricing shifts can materially affect quarterly revenue and margins.
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Network densification & monetization
2027-02-06
Execution on hub densification, automation, and higher-value services could expand margins and support a multiple re-rating over multiple quarters.
Prob 50% • Move 35% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

China e‑commerce volume slowdown reducing parcel demand
Price competition or higher input costs compressing margins
Regulatory or cross‑border disruptions affecting volumes or liquidity

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc Class A ADR (ZTO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06