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ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman)A
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 23% and adjusted net income rose 50.3% year over year. Higher-value returns parcels, improved unit pricing and operating cash generation could support earnings if the mix and margins persist.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
2026 parcel-volume guidance was reduced from 10%–13% to 6%–10% growth. [#PR-ZTO-2026-08-18] ZTO Q2 release
Momentum
40
Value
65
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $25.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.47
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +6.9
Value65 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 parcel-volume guidance was reduced from 10%–13% to 6%–10% growth. [#PR-ZTO-2026-08-18] ZTO Q2 release
  • • Higher pickup and dispatch costs for key-account returns, fuel volatility and network-partner execution could pressure margins. [#PR-ZTO-2026-08-18] ZTO Q2 release
  • • The parcel-volume guidance cut outweighs the strong Q2 profit print as a forward signal.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Revised 2026 parcel-volume target

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.9
Δ21d
+11.1
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 40.2 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 62.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$14.78B
Beta
-0.18
Shares Out
547.75M
P/E (TTM)
14.3
P/S (TTM)
2.54
P/FCF (TTM)
11.44
Rev YoY
+30.7%
EPS YoY
+71.2%
Gross Margin
+25.1%
Op Margin
+20.2%
Net Debt
-$2.03B
Current Ratio
1.67
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data