B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman)BNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Successful densification, automation and higher‑value services drive sustained margin expansion and multiple re‑rating; revenue growth outperforms consensus.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.1.
What can break
China e‑commerce volume slowdown reducing parcel demand
Momentum
22
Value
63
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.92 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.29
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -8.1
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +8.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China e‑commerce volume slowdown reducing parcel demand
- • Price competition or higher input costs compressing margins
- • Prolonged volume weakness, spot pricing pressure or rising opex compress margins and trigger re‑rating toward lower analyst targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-03-24
FY2025 Earnings Release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
-9.2
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+15.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 22.2 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 75.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$22.92
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.14B
Beta
-0.18
Shares Out
553.91M
P/E (TTM)
14.3
P/S (TTM)
2.54
P/FCF (TTM)
11.44
Rev YoY
+30.7%
EPS YoY
+71.2%
Gross Margin
+25.1%
Op Margin
+20.2%
Net Debt
-$2.03B
Current Ratio
1.67
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data