AI Stock Memo: ZBRA - Zebra - RankAlpha

ZBRA

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Zebra

As of 2026-05-15/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 beat-and-raise resets the near-term earnings base [#8-K-2026-05-12] • 2026-05-12

Expected move: +16%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that a meaningful share of reported growth still comes from acquisitions and FX, not just core demand. FY2026 sales guidance includes about 7 points of favorable acquisition/FX impact, and Q2 guidance includes about 10.5 points, so any organic slowdown or weaker integration execution could compress the post-print rerating.

Invalidation

Break below $225 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: Zebra delivered a clean beat/raise, showed broad-based regional and segment growth, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin to 23.2%, and highlighted continued momentum into Q2. Trusted follow-up coverage also pointed to selective positive revisions, including KeyBanc's upgrade and UBS's higher target.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-15

Base target

$285

p=1%

Bull target

$335

p=0%

Bear target

$225

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Capital return and post-print analyst follow-through can support a near-term rerating
Organic growth plus acquisition synergies remain the main medium-term execution test [#10-Q-2026-05-12]
The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: Zebra delivered a clean beat/raise, showed broad-based regional and segment growth, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin to 23.2%, and highlighted continued momentum into Q2.

BearKey bullets

Connected Frontline growth still carries acquisition dependence from Elo Touch, while AVA comparisons still include Photoneo effects; if synergy capture or demand normalization slips, margin progress could fade.
[#10-Q-2026-05-12]
Guide quality needs monitoring because reported growth is meaningfully helped by acquisitions and FX, especially in Q2 and FY2026 outlook framing.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 beat-and-raise resets the near-term earnings base [#8-K-2026-05-12]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $285 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -8%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +16% · Bear -8%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $335 (p=0%)Base Target: $285 (p=1%)Bear Target: $225 (p=0%)

Commentary

Tone improved materially after the May 12, 2026 print because the company delivered a beat/raise and trusted follow-up coverage described a double-digit immediate share-price rally tied to the results and higher outlook. By the May 14, 2026 anchor, some of that enthusiasm had already normalized, which fits a constructive-but-not-euphoric setup. Coverage is adequate on the earnings event, but visible analyst revision breadth is still incomplete, so confidence should stay moderate rather than high.

As of 2026-05-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Capital return and post-print analyst follow-through can support a near-term rerating
Organic growth plus acquisition synergies remain the main medium-term execution test [#10-Q-2026-05-12]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$335 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$285 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$225 / p=0% prob

Price $246 as of 2026-06-22

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +16% · Bear -8%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.68

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-12
Q1 beat-and-raise resets the near-term earnings base [#8-K-2026-05-12]
Zebra reported Q1 net sales of $1.495B (+14.3% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $4.75, and raised FY2026 guidance to 10%-14% sales growth, about 22% adjusted EBITDA margin, $18.30-$18.70 non-GAAP EPS, and >$900M free cash flow; the company also guided Q2 sales growth to 14%-17%.
Prob 80.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Capital return and post-print analyst follow-through can support a near-term rerating
2026-05-31
The 10-Q disclosed $300M of Q1 buybacks plus another roughly $200M repurchased early in Q2, while post-earnings follow-up coverage showed at least some supportive sell-side reaction, including KeyBanc upgrading to Overweight with a $305 target and UBS raising its target to $335 from $310.
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Organic growth plus acquisition synergies remain the main medium-term execution test [#10-Q-2026-05-12]
2026-08-01
Q1 consolidated organic growth was 4.3%, with CF organic growth of 3.8% and AVA organic growth of 4.8%; CF growth still benefited from Elo Touch while AVA benefited from printing strength, so the next leg of upside depends on sustaining organic demand and converting Elo/Photoneo integration into durable margin support.
Prob 65% • Move 10% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Connected Frontline growth still carries acquisition dependence from Elo Touch, while AVA comparisons still include Photoneo effects; if synergy capture or demand normalization slips, margin progress could fade. [#10-Q-2026-05-12]
Guide quality needs monitoring because reported growth is meaningfully helped by acquisitions and FX, especially in Q2 and FY2026 outlook framing. [#8-K-2026-05-12]
Leverage remains material: total debt was $2.66B at April 4, 2026, up from $2.51B at December 31, 2025, with revolver borrowings rising to $430M. [#10-Q-2026-05-12]
Management's own risk language still flags component availability, operating-cost control, FX, trade policy, debt and acquisition integration as potential volatility drivers. [#8-K-2026-05-12]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CDW	Broad enterprise IT reseller/infrastructure comp; useful for enterprise demand read-through, but not a close product peer to Zebra’s data-capture and workflow automation stack.
DELL	Broader enterprise hardware comp with closer exposure to device and infrastructure spending cycles than most packet peers, though end-markets and margin structure are still materially different.
HPQ	PC/printing hardware comp that offers a loose hardware valuation anchor, but Zebra has more industrial and automation exposure, so multiple comparisons should be treated cautiously.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-15