AI Stock Memo: HON - Honeywell International - RankAlpha

HON

Rating buyAI Memo

Honeywell International

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Large aerospace/defense contract awards • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +1%

Biggest risk

A sustained slowdown in commercial aerospace and execution misses on productivity programs compress margins and revenue, pushing shares toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $195 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Honeywell delivers sustained margin expansion and stronger-than-expected aerospace aftermarket recovery, validating premium multiple and pushing shares toward the high end of analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$240

p=60%

Bull target

$280

p=20%

Bear target

$195

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (next reported quarter)
Margin expansion from productivity and aftermarket recovery
Honeywell delivers sustained margin expansion and stronger-than-expected aerospace aftermarket recovery, validating premium multiple and pushing shares toward the high end of analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Aerospace cyclical downturn
Broad macro slowdown reducing industrial capex
Delay or loss of major defense/aerospace contracts

WatchKey bullets

Large aerospace/defense contract awards

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $240 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -18%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +1% · Bear -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $280 (p=20%)Base Target: $240 (p=60%)Bear Target: $195 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage shows a concentrated median in the low-to-mid $200s with wide high/low dispersion, indicating mixed conviction [#SERP-7]. Positive sentiment centers on margin execution and aerospace aftermarket recovery; downside focus is on execution and cyclicality. Given the modest base-case uplift vs the anchor, our buy stance leans on successful execution that realizes the larger bull outcome [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Honeywell delivers sustained margin expansion and stronger-than-expected aerospace aftermarket recovery, validating premium multiple and pushing shares toward the high end of analyst targets.

Bear Case

A sustained slowdown in commercial aerospace and execution misses on productivity programs compress margins and revenue, pushing shares toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings (next reported quarter)
Margin expansion from productivity and aftermarket recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$238.46

Range (USD)

$195.00 - $298.00

Count

Query: Honeywell International Inc Common (HON) analyst consensus price target high low average

Honeywell International (HON) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
The highest price target for HON is $266.00, while the lowest price target for HON is $195.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 4.59% ...
Extracted: $266.00, $195.00Open source
Honeywell International (HON) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $235.08 with a high forecast of $262.00 and a low forecast of $195.00. The average price target represents a 6.41% change from the ...
Extracted: $235.08, $262.00, $195.00Open source
A Look At Honeywell International (HON) Valuation After JPMorgan ...
Search result #3
The analysts have a consensus price target of $252.97 for Honeywell International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth ...
Extracted: $252.97Open source5 days ago
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) Price Targets
Search result #4
The forecasts for Honeywell International Inc. (HON) range from a low of $195 to a high of $266. The average price target represents a increase of $7.39 from ...
Extracted: $195.00, $266.00, $7.39Open source
Honeywell Intl Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NASDAQ:HON
Search result #5
Honeywell International Inc has a consensus price target of $235.43 based on the ratings of 22 analysts. The high is $298 issued by UBS on November 13, ...
Extracted: $235.43, $298.00Open source
HON / Honeywell International Inc. (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price ...
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for Honeywell International Inc. is $238.36. The forecasts range from a low of $196.95 to a high of $280.35. Read More.
Extracted: $238.36, $196.95, $280.35Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$280 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$240 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$195 / p=20% prob

Price $238 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +1% · Bear -18%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Large aerospace/defense contract awards
Award decisions (timing often opaque); using a conservative window end assumption for potential material contract outcomes that would affect revenue/backlog [#SERP-1]
Prob 35.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings (next reported quarter)
2026-04-30
Next quarterly report can move shares on organic revenue, backlog and margin execution; date not disclosed here so using conservative near-term window assumption [#SERP-3]
Prob 85% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Margin expansion from productivity and aftermarket recovery
2027-01-30
Gradual margin improvement and service mix shift could drive multi-quarter upside if execution matches guidance and aftermarket demand rebounds [#SERP-2]
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Aerospace cyclical downturn
Broad macro slowdown reducing industrial capex
Delay or loss of major defense/aerospace contracts
Failure to execute margin/productivity programs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RTX	Large aerospace/defense exposure and aftermarket services; comparable cyclicality in commercial aerospace demand.
GE	Diversified industrial portfolio with large aviation and services businesses; similar exposure to macro-driven aircraft services.
LMT	Prime defense contractor with higher program concentration; useful comparitor for defense-contract risk and backlog dynamics.
EMR	Industrial automation and controls peer; highlights exposure to industrial capex and service-driven recurring revenues.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Honeywell International Inc Common (HON) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30