YSS

AI Memo

York Space

As of 2026-10-15/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Nemesis spacecraft delivery targeted for Q4 • 2026-12-31

Base target: $7 / p=1% prob

Biggest risk

The lowered 2026 outlook, sequential backlog decline and wider Q2 net loss show that a large opportunity pipeline has not yet translated into dependable near-term earnings. Government award timing remains outside York's control. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]

Invalidation

Break below $4 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year to $92.5 million, and gross margin reached 24%, though management attributed much of the margin improvement to a prior-year adjustment rolling off. Funded task-order conversion and the targeted Nemesis delivery could strengthen the case for later growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-15

Base target

p=1%

Bull target

$10

p=0%

Bear target

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

IDIQ awards may lead to larger funded task orders
Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year to $92.5 million, and gross margin reached 24%, though management attributed much of the margin improvement to a prior-year adjustment rolling off.
Funded task-order conversion and the targeted Nemesis delivery could strengthen the case for later growth.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition integration, contract concentration and spacecraft-delivery execution remain material risks identified by the company.
[#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
Government procurement delays could push funded task orders and revenue beyond the reduced 2026 outlook.

WatchKey bullets

Nemesis spacecraft delivery targeted for Q4

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $7 (p=1%)

Target spread vs base: +46% / -46%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=0%)Base Target: $7 (p=1%)Bear Target: $4 (p=0%)

Commentary

The packet has sparse recent news and no sufficient social, options, short-interest or employee dataset; the zero-valued sentiment fields denote unavailable data, not neutral readings. No verified analyst revisions or post-results price reaction were supplied. The positive deterministic prior is tempered by reduced guidance and uncertain award timing.

As of 2026-10-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

IDIQ awards may lead to larger funded task orders

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=0% prob

Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Nemesis spacecraft delivery targeted for Q4
York said its Nemesis mission cleared a critical design review and remained on track for spacecraft delivery in Q4 2026. Delivery would demonstrate execution beyond its existing satellite programs; the quarter-end date is a monitoring marker, not a disclosed delivery day. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] SEC-filed earnings release
Prob 65.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 45.00%
EVENT2027-03-31
Reduced 2026 revenue outlook tests backlog conversion
York lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to $375 million–$405 million, chiefly because a shift in government procurement removed expected new-business revenue from 2026. June backlog was $592 million, down 8% from March. The next results should test whether funded work is converting on time; the date is a monitoring estimate, not an announced earnings date. [#8-K-2026-08-13] SEC-filed earnings release
Prob 85.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

IDIQ awards may lead to larger funded task orders
2027-12-31
York reported eight first-half contract wins and said six 2026 awards used the newer IDIQ approach. Management expects larger follow-on opportunities in 2027 and beyond, but the $11.5 billion identified pipeline is not awarded backlog. The date is an indicative monitoring horizon. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] SEC-filed earnings release
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Acquisition integration, contract concentration and spacecraft-delivery execution remain material risks identified by the company. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
Government procurement delays could push funded task orders and revenue beyond the reduced 2026 outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
June backlog fell 8% sequentially to $592 million; potential awards and the identified pipeline are not contracted revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]
Q2 net loss widened to $39.3 million from $24.2 million a year earlier despite higher revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
APOG	Similar market capitalization and capital-goods classification, but building-products exposure makes it a broad size reference, not a direct space-systems operating peer.
CDNL	Similar size and sector classification, but infrastructure contracting differs materially from York's defense-space procurement and program economics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-15

Loading AI feed…

Symbol

Summary

APOG

Similar market capitalization and capital-goods classification, but building-products exposure makes it a broad size reference, not a direct space-systems operating peer.

CDNL

Similar size and sector classification, but infrastructure contracting differs materially from York's defense-space procurement and program economics.