WYNN

TentativeAI Memo

Wynn Resorts

As of 2026-09-04/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Q2 2026 earnings beat with Wynn Palace strength • 2026-08-04

Base target: $105 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Operating momentum was uneven: Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor EBITDAR declined year over year, while the UAE project remains exposed to geopolitical, construction, and budget risks. The anchor price of $91.56 is also below the stored post-earnings level, indicating weak follow-through.

Invalidation

Break below $75 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q2 print confirmed strong demand, with revenue and profitability materially above the prior-year period and Wynn Palace providing substantial EBITDAR growth. The UAE resort offers additional long-term optionality.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-04

Base target

$105

p=50%

Bull target

$135

p=25%

Bear target

$75

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Wynn Al Marjan Island targeted September 2027 opening
The Q2 print confirmed strong demand, with revenue and profitability materially above the prior-year period and Wynn Palace providing substantial EBITDAR growth.
The UAE resort offers additional long-term optionality.

BearKey bullets

Analyst target breadth, options skew, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
Q2 EBITDAR growth was concentrated in Wynn Palace; Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor declined year over year.
[#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]

WatchKey bullets

Q2 2026 earnings beat with Wynn Palace strength

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $105 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +29% / -29%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $135 (p=25%)Base Target: $105 (p=50%)Bear Target: $75 (p=25%)

Commentary

Recent news tone is positive around the Q2 earnings beat and Macau/Las Vegas demand, but the stock underperformed peers on August 31 and the latest anchor is below the stored post-print price. Analyst-revision breadth is limited, so the thesis remains monitoring-oriented despite strong primary earnings evidence.

As of 2026-09-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Wynn Al Marjan Island targeted September 2027 opening

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$135 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$105 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$75 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.25

Social Sentiment (7d)

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-04
Q2 2026 earnings beat with Wynn Palace strength
Q2 operating revenue reached $1.86 billion, net income was $140.1 million, and Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $568.3 million. Wynn Palace drove the largest EBITDAR increase, while Las Vegas and Boston declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Prob 100.00% • Move 5.10% • Priced-in 100.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Wynn Al Marjan Island targeted September 2027 opening
2027-09-04
The company announced a September 2027 opening target for Wynn Al Marjan Island and reported that construction was progressing rapidly, creating long-term growth optionality while retaining execution and geopolitical risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Prob 70% • Move 15% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Analyst target breadth, options skew, short interest, social sentiment, and employee sentiment are unavailable.
Q2 EBITDAR growth was concentrated in Wynn Palace; Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Stored earnings-call coverage reported potential Las Vegas renovation-related room revenue losses of $2-$4 million per quarter through next year; this is secondary commentary, not a formal company forecast. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-13]
Wynn Al Marjan Island faces Gulf-region geopolitical and execution risk despite the September 2027 target. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MGM	Direct global gaming and entertainment comparator with hotel-and-casino destinations. Official investor-relations overview: https://investors.mgmresorts.com/overview. Standardized relative valuation metrics were not supplied.
LVS	Direct integrated-resort comparator with Macau and Singapore exposure. Official investor-relations overview: https://www.investor.sands.com/home/default.aspx. Standardized relative valuation metrics were not supplied.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-04

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Symbol

Summary

MGM

Direct global gaming and entertainment comparator with hotel-and-casino destinations. Official investor-relations overview: https://investors.mgmresorts.com/overview. Standardized relative valuation metrics were not supplied.

LVS

Direct integrated-resort comparator with Macau and Singapore exposure. Official investor-relations overview: https://www.investor.sands.com/home/default.aspx. Standardized relative valuation metrics were not supplied.