WYNN

AI Memo

Wynn Resorts

As of 2026-09-30/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Mixed Q2 operating results • 2026-08-04

Base target: $86 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Q2 EBITDAR fell in Las Vegas, Boston and Wynn Macau despite consolidated growth. The new debt extends maturity but carries a higher coupon than the notes slated for redemption; project execution adds risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#8-K-2026-09-22]

Invalidation

Break below $60 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 growth at Wynn Palace and the planned September 2027 Al Marjan opening support a positive longer-term case. The company release confirms the operating growth and project target. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-30

Base target

$86

p=50%

Bull target

$105

p=25%

Bear target

$60

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Wynn Al Marjan Island opening
Q2 growth at Wynn Palace and the planned September 2027 Al Marjan opening support a positive longer-term case.
The company release confirms the operating growth and project target.

BearKey bullets

Al Marjan construction, financing and post-opening ramp-up could diverge from the September 2027 target.
[#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Las Vegas Q2 adjusted property EBITDAR declined $19.6 million year over year despite a monthly May record.

WatchKey bullets

Mixed Q2 operating results

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $86 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +22% / -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $105 (p=25%)Base Target: $86 (p=50%)Bear Target: $60 (p=25%)

Commentary

Company evidence is positive but mixed: Wynn Palace drove Q2 growth while several other properties' EBITDAR declined. Stored Zacks coverage reported shares down about 9.5% in the month after earnings; that is not a September 30 price-reaction measurement. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-03] No reliable post-print analyst revisions, current options, short-interest, employee or sufficient social readings were supplied. Zero sentiment inputs denote unavailable data, not neutral measurements.

As of 2026-09-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Wynn Al Marjan Island opening

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$105 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$86 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-04
Mixed Q2 operating results
Q2 revenue rose to $1.86 billion and adjusted property EBITDAR to $568.3 million. Wynn Palace added $44.3 million of EBITDAR year over year, offsetting declines in Las Vegas, Boston and Wynn Macau. Stored Zacks coverage reported adjusted EPS of $1.24 versus $1.01 consensus, but the results are now historical. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-03]
Prob 100.00% • Move 0.00% • Priced-in 100.00%
EVENT2026-09-22
Debt maturity extension at a higher coupon
Wynn issued $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 on September 22. Proceeds plus cash on hand are intended to redeem its outstanding 5.250% Las Vegas notes due 2027. The maturity extension reduces near-term refinancing pressure, while the higher coupon warrants cash-flow monitoring. [#8-K-2026-09-22]
Prob 100.00% • Move 0.00% • Priced-in 100.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Wynn Al Marjan Island opening
2027-09-30
Management set September 2027 as the resort's opening target. It offers geographic diversification, but construction, financing and the pace of the operating ramp remain unresolved. The exact opening day was not supplied. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Prob 70% • Move 15% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Al Marjan construction, financing and post-opening ramp-up could diverge from the September 2027 target. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Las Vegas Q2 adjusted property EBITDAR declined $19.6 million year over year despite a monthly May record. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
The 6.875% new notes carry a higher coupon than the 5.250% notes Wynn intends to redeem; the packet does not establish the net interest-expense effect. [#8-K-2026-09-22]
Wynn Macau and Encore Boston Harbor also posted Q2 EBITDAR declines. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LVS	Useful integrated-resort comparator for Macau exposure and destination development, but its Singapore footprint makes it an imperfect match for Wynn's Las Vegas business. No comparable current valuation multiple was supplied.
MGM	Closest operating comparator across Las Vegas resorts and Macau, though MGM's regional and digital businesses limit consolidated comparisons. The supplied prior baseline reports stronger Q2 Las Vegas EBITDAR at MGM than at Wynn; a fresh peer valuation multiple was not supplied.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-30

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Symbol

Summary

LVS

Useful integrated-resort comparator for Macau exposure and destination development, but its Singapore footprint makes it an imperfect match for Wynn's Las Vegas business. No comparable current valuation multiple was supplied.

MGM

Closest operating comparator across Las Vegas resorts and Macau, though MGM's regional and digital businesses limit consolidated comparisons. The supplied prior baseline reports stronger Q2 Las Vegas EBITDAR at MGM than at Wynn; a fresh peer valuation multiple was not supplied.