WM

Rating buyAI Memo

Waste Management

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Consensus re-rating after quarterly results • 2026-04-29

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

Commercial volume weakness, commodity or fuel shocks, or adverse municipal outcomes compress margins and push consensus toward the analyst low (bear target).

Invalidation

Break below $200 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Pricing and efficiency initiatives outperform, driving margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the analyst high (bull target).

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$248

p=60%

Bull target

$285

p=20%

Bear target

$200

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings sensitivity
Multi-quarter margin recovery
Pricing and efficiency initiatives outperform, driving margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the analyst high (bull target).

BearKey bullets

Fuel/commodity cost shocks raising operating expenses
Regulatory changes affecting tipping fees or contract economics
Sustained volume declines or weaker municipal spending

WatchKey bullets

Consensus re-rating after quarterly results

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $248 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +22% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base +6% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $285 (p=20%)Base Target: $248 (p=60%)Bear Target: $200 (p=20%)

Commentary

Street coverage is modestly constructive: median targets sit above the current anchor, implying limited upside consensus. Near-term news (a recent earnings miss) raises uncertainty ahead of the next quarter.

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Pricing and efficiency initiatives outperform, driving margin expansion and multiple re-rating toward the analyst high (bull target).

Bear Case

Commercial volume weakness, commodity or fuel shocks, or adverse municipal outcomes compress margins and push consensus toward the analyst low (bear target).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings sensitivity
Multi-quarter margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$247.86

Range (USD)

$199.59 - $285.00

Count

Query: Waste Management Inc Common (WM) analyst consensus price target high low average

Waste Management (WM) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #1
According to the 26 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Waste Management, the average price target is $251.19. The highest price target for WM is ...
Extracted: $251.19Open source
WM Stock Price Quote & News - Waste Management - Robinhood
Search result #2
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on WM (WM) to $246 from $238 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook f ...
Extracted: $246.00, $238.00Open source
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Waste Management (WM) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates. Zacks • 7h ago ... Analyst Insights: WM. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 200.00 Low. 248.56 ...
Open source
Waste Management, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 27 ; Last Close Price. 230.25USD ; Average target price. 248.56USD ; Spread / Average Target. +7.95%.
Extracted: $230.25, $248.56Open source
Waste Management Inc. Analyst Estimates - WM - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $285.00. Median, $250.00. Low, $223.00. Average, $249.96. Current Price, $231.34. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. WM will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $285.00, $250.00, $223.00, $249.96, $231.34Open source
Waste Management Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:WM
Search result #6
Waste Management Inc has a consensus price target of $247.15 based on the ratings of 30 analysts. The high is $265 issued by Barclays on January 20, 2026.
Extracted: $247.15, $265.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$285 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$248 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$200 / p=20% prob

Price $233 as of 2026-07-21

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base +6% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-29
Consensus re-rating after quarterly results
Brokerage target revisions and consensus updates typically follow the quarter and can re-price the stock if guidance or results diverge from expectations.
Prob 70.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings sensitivity
2026-04-29
Q4 results and FY2026 guidance can materially move shares; recent Q4 misses heighten sensitivity. Date is an estimated earnings-window end.
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Multi-quarter margin recovery
2027-01-29
Sustained pricing, fuel deflation and operational efficiency could lift free cash flow and drive multi-quarter upside toward consensus targets if execution persists.
Prob 55% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Fuel/commodity cost shocks raising operating expenses
Regulatory changes affecting tipping fees or contract economics
Sustained volume declines or weaker municipal spending

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RSG	Republic Services — closest U.S. peer with similar municipal contract exposure and pricing sensitivity; useful operational comparator.
WCN	Waste Connections — faster organic growth profile and different geographic mix; helpful to benchmark execution and volume trends.
CLH	Clean Harbors — complementary hazardous/industrial waste exposure; provides contrast on specialty-service pricing and margins.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Waste Management Inc Common (WM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29

AI Stock Memo: WM - Waste Management - RankAlpha