WDFC

TentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

WD-40

As of 2026-07-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 FY2026 earnings beat with updated outlook • 2026-07-09

Expected move: +10%

Biggest risk

The stock has already rerated sharply, while higher input costs may compress margins through the near term. Secondary coverage noted that the guidance update was less favorable than the quarterly beat, implying some upside giveback and margin pressure through the first half of FY2027. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-10]

Invalidation

Break below $225 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The official Q3 release shows broad-based maintenance-product growth, operating leverage, and strong demand across all three trade blocs. Secondary post-print coverage reported DA Davidson raising its target from $270 to $305 and Jefferies raising its target from $229 to $245. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-10]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-07-14

Base target

$272

p=50%

Bull target

$305

p=30%

Bear target

$225

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Input-cost and margin pressure
Sustained maintenance-product growth
The official Q3 release shows broad-based maintenance-product growth, operating leverage, and strong demand across all three trade blocs.

BearKey bullets

Higher input costs could pressure gross margin in FY2026 Q4 and FY2027 before pricing and cost-saving benefits arrive.
Q3 growth included favorable currency effects, customer inventory builds, and advanced buying ahead of constraints and price increases, creating pull-forward risk.
Reclassification of Americas homecare and cleaning brands and portfolio changes may complicate comparability and execution.

WatchKey bullets

Q3 FY2026 earnings beat with updated outlook

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $272 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -9%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +10% · Bear -9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $305 (p=30%)Base Target: $272 (p=50%)Bear Target: $225 (p=20%)

Commentary

At T+3, secondary coverage was clearly positive but remains limited rather than a full consensus dataset: reports cited a Friday gain of more than 23%, a strong earnings beat, and target increases from DA Davidson and Jefferies. Social, options, short-interest, and employee data are unavailable. Primary company disclosures support strong operating momentum while explicitly highlighting input-cost and margin risk; the view remains post-earnings monitoring rather than a low-risk bargain thesis. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-10] [#IR-2026-07-09]

As of 2026-07-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Input-cost and margin pressure
Sustained maintenance-product growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$305 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$272 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$225 / p=20% prob

Price $247 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +10% · Bear -9%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.82

Social Sentiment (7d)

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-09
Q3 FY2026 earnings beat with updated outlook
WD-40's July 9 investor-relations earnings release reported Q3 net sales of $195.1 million, operating income up 47%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.33. Management updated and narrowed FY2026 guidance to $652–667 million constant-currency sales and $6.05–6.35 non-GAAP EPS. [#IR-2026-07-09] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-09]
Prob 90.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 75.00%
EVENT2026-09-01
New $100 million repurchase authorization
The board approved a $100 million share-repurchase program effective September 1, 2026, subject to market conditions and debt covenants. [#IR-2026-07-09]
Prob 85.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Input-cost and margin pressure
2026-10-12
Management reduced the gross-margin outlook to 54.5%–55.5% after higher-than-expected cost increases; pricing and cost-saving benefits are expected mainly in FY2027. [#IR-2026-07-09]
Prob 65% • Move -8% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained maintenance-product growth
2027-07-14
Maintenance products, representing 97% of Q3 sales, grew 26%, supported by WD-40 Multi-Use Product and Specialist across the Americas, EIMEA, and Asia-Pacific. Expanded distribution, e-commerce, product placement, and premiumization provide forward support. [#IR-2026-07-09]
Prob 70% • Move 10% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Higher input costs could pressure gross margin in FY2026 Q4 and FY2027 before pricing and cost-saving benefits arrive.
Q3 growth included favorable currency effects, customer inventory builds, and advanced buying ahead of constraints and price increases, creating pull-forward risk.
Reclassification of Americas homecare and cleaning brands and portfolio changes may complicate comparability and execution.
The sharp post-earnings rerating leaves less valuation cushion, and analyst target dispersion is wide with no reliable target-count disclosure.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CENT	Closest size and sector candidate, but garden-and-pet exposure makes it an imperfect operating peer.
COTY	Consumer-brand and retail exposure is relevant, but beauty-category economics make it a loose comp.
ELF	Useful for broad branded-consumer context, but not a direct maintenance-products comparable.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-14

AI Stock Memo: WDFC - WD-40 - RankAlpha