AI Stock Memo: VOD - Vodafone Group Public - RankAlpha

VOD

Rating sellAI Memo

Vodafone Group Public

As of 2026-02-03/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2026 results (company-reported) • 2026-05-12

Expected move: -10%

Biggest risk

Bear scenario assumes continued ARPU pressure, adverse FX and regulatory outcomes, and limited free-cash-flow improvement, leaving multiples anchored near the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull scenario rests on successful margin recovery, outperformance in enterprise/IoT revenue, and multiple expansion toward the analyst high; execution and positive guidance at FY2026 would validate this.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-03

Base target

$13

p=50%

Bull target

$20

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings analyst revisions
Operational turnaround and margin recovery
Bull scenario rests on successful margin recovery, outperformance in enterprise/IoT revenue, and multiple expansion toward the analyst high; execution and positive guidance at FY2026 would validate this.

BearKey bullets

Dividend cut or capital-allocation disappointment
FX volatility across GBP/EUR/USD
Regulatory actions, fines or price controls in EU/UK markets

WatchKey bullets

FY2026 results (company-reported)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $13 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +35% / -47%

Vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base -10% · Bear -47%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $20 (p=20%)Base Target: $13 (p=50%)Bear Target: $8 (p=30%)

Commentary

Consensus median target (13.45) sits below the anchor (14.91), signalling limited near-term upside absent positive catalysts [#SERP-1][#SERP-6]. The target range is wide (8.00–20.14) and the bull-case probability is modest (20%), implying downside skew in the market view. Near-term focus is on FY2026 results and capital-allocation commentary, so sentiment is neutral-to-cautious until those outcomes arrive [#SERP-7].

As of 2026-02-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear scenario assumes continued ARPU pressure, adverse FX and regulatory outcomes, and limited free-cash-flow improvement, leaving multiples anchored near the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings analyst revisions
Operational turnaround and margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-03Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.45

Range (USD)

$8.00 - $20.14

Count

Query: Vodafone Group Public Ltd Company ADR (VOD) analyst consensus price target high low average

VOD | Vodafone Group PLC ADR Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $20.14. Median, $13.45. Low, $8.56. Average, $13.44. Current Price, $14.71. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. VOD will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $20.14, $13.45, $8.56, $13.44, $14.71Open source
Vodafone Group PLC ADR (VOD) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
Find the latest Vodafone Group PLC ADR (VOD) stock forecast, 12-month price target, predictions and analyst recommendations.
Open source
VOD | Vodafone Group PLC ADR Analyst Estimates & Ratings – WSJ
Search result #3
Stock Price Target VOD. High, $20.14. Median, $13.45. Low, $8.56. Average, $13.44. Current Price, $14.65. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & Ratings ...
Extracted: $20.14, $13.45, $8.56, $13.44, $14.65Open source
Vodafone Group Public (VOD) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #4
According to the 5 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Vodafone Group Public, the average price target is GBX 94. The highest price target for VOD is GBX ...
Open source
VODAFONE GROUP PLC-SP ADR (VOD) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #5
27 analysts have analysed VOD and the average price target is 13.14 USD. This implies a price decrease of -7.28% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $13.14Open source
Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) Price Targets
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $8.00 to a high of $13.70. The average price target represents a decline of 27.06% from the last closing price of $14.71.
Extracted: $8.00, $13.70, $14.71Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=30% prob

Price $15 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base -10% · Bear -47%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-12
FY2026 results (company-reported)
Full-year FY2026 results and guidance; consensus references indicate a FY2026 report date of 2026-05-12 (reported in market summaries) [#SERP-3][#SERP-6].
Prob 85.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings analyst revisions
2026-05-04
Analyst target and rating revisions typically follow the FY results; will drive short-term directional flows and volatility [#SERP-1].
Prob 60% • Move 4% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational turnaround and margin recovery
2027-02-03
Medium-term recovery driven by cost efficiencies, enterprise/IoT growth, and execution of capital-allocation plans; outcome material by year-end +1 (assumed window end used) [#SERP-6].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Dividend cut or capital-allocation disappointment
FX volatility across GBP/EUR/USD
Regulatory actions, fines or price controls in EU/UK markets
Weaker-than-expected broadband/enterprise demand

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Vodafone Group Public Ltd Company ADR (VOD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-03