USFD

Rating sellAI Memo

US Foods

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Analyst consensus revisions (12-month window) • 2026-05-15

Expected move: +12%

Biggest risk

Weaker foodservice demand or persistent commodity/labor inflation compresses margins and prompts re‑rating toward analyst lows in the low‑80s.

Invalidation

Break below $79 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained price realization and cost savings drive sequential margin expansion; consensus revisions move 12‑month targets toward the high end of published ranges, producing modest upside versus the anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$92

p=50%

Bull target

$107

p=20%

Bear target

$79

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings / guidance update
Operational / margin improvement realization
Sustained price realization and cost savings drive sequential margin expansion; consensus revisions move 12‑month targets toward the high end of published ranges, producing modest upside versus the anchor.

BearKey bullets

Execution shortfall on margin programs
Leverage/refinancing or covenant pressure
Rising commodity and transportation costs

WatchKey bullets

Analyst consensus revisions (12-month window)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $92 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -3%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +12% · Bear -3%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $107 (p=20%)Base Target: $92 (p=50%)Bear Target: $79 (p=30%)

Commentary

Sell-side median targets sit below the current anchor, implying limited upside; coverage shows a wide range (low ~79, high ~107), reflecting split views on margin recovery and execution.

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Weaker foodservice demand or persistent commodity/labor inflation compresses margins and prompts re‑rating toward analyst lows in the low‑80s.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 earnings / guidance update
Operational / margin improvement realization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$91.90

Range (USD)

$79.06 - $107.10

Count

Query: US Foods Holding Corp Common (USFD) analyst consensus price target high low average

US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Find the latest US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for US Foods is 91.4, with a high estimate of 102 and a low estimate of 82.
Open source
US Foods Holding (USFD) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $91.90 with a high forecast of $95.00 and a low forecast of $85.00. The average price target represents a -8.80% change from the ...
Extracted: $91.90, $95.00, $85.00Open source
US Foods Holding Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 17 ; Last Close Price. 87.82USD ; Average target price. 91.62USD ; Spread / Average Target. +4.33%.
Extracted: $87.82, $91.62Open source
USFD Stock Forecast - US Foods Holding Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
92 USD. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for USFD is 92 USD with a low forecast of 82.82 USD and a high forecast of 107.1 USD.
Extracted: $92.00, $82.82, $107.10Open source
US Foods Holdings Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:USFD
Search result #6
US Foods Holding Corp has a consensus price target of $79.06 based on the ratings of 17 analysts. The high is $96 issued by UBS on July 28, 2025. The low is ...
Extracted: $79.06, $96.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$107 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$92 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$79 / p=30% prob

Price $82 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +12% · Bear -3%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-15
Analyst consensus revisions (12-month window)
Post-quarter analyst upgrades/downgrades could shift the consensus target distribution and reprice the stock versus the current median.
Prob 60.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 earnings / guidance update
2026-05-15
Quarterly results and forward guidance that will confirm or challenge margin recovery; distributors often reprice on EPS/guidance beats or misses.
Prob 85% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational / margin improvement realization
2027-02-14
Multi-quarter cost and pricing initiatives that materially improve gross and operating margins if sustained; judged over 12+ months.
Prob 50% • Move 18% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution shortfall on margin programs
Leverage/refinancing or covenant pressure
Rising commodity and transportation costs
Slower-than-expected foodservice demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SYY	Sysco — largest foodservice distributor; scale and volume trends offer a benchmark for demand and margin cycles.
PFGC	Performance Food Group — direct U.S. competitor with similar margin sensitivity to volume and commodity shifts.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: US Foods Holding Corp Common (USFD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14

AI Stock Memo: USFD - US Foods - RankAlpha