UNP

Rating buyAI Memo

Union Pacific

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Operational/guidance update (cost, fuel, network performance) • 2026-05-05

Expected move: -1%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes weaker freight demand or margin pressure from fuel/labor costs, driving the stock toward low analyst targets near $215.00 and multiple compression.

Invalidation

Break below $215 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes continued freight-volume recovery, successful execution of capex productivity improvements, and sustained pricing power leading to realization of high-end analyst targets near $307.65 within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$262

p=60%

Bull target

$308

p=20%

Bear target

$215

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / guidance (Q1 2026)
Infrastructure investment returns and rate environment normalization
Bull case assumes continued freight-volume recovery, successful execution of capex productivity improvements, and sustained pricing power leading to realization of high-end analyst targets near $307.65 within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
Regulatory or network disruption increasing transit costs
Slower-than-expected freight volume recovery

WatchKey bullets

Operational/guidance update (cost, fuel, network performance)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $262 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -1% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $308 (p=20%)Base Target: $262 (p=60%)Bear Target: $215 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market and sell-side consensus skews mildly positive with a median near $261.81; several sources show highs near $286–307 and lows near $215–245 indicating dispersion in views [#SERP-1] [#SERP-3]. Recent analyst summaries emphasize execution on network performance and pricing as key drivers. The tone is constructive but contingent on operational improvements and stable demand [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case assumes weaker freight demand or margin pressure from fuel/labor costs, driving the stock toward low analyst targets near $215.00 and multiple compression.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / guidance (Q1 2026)
Infrastructure investment returns and rate environment normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$261.81

Range (USD)

$215.00 - $307.65

Count

Query: Union Pacific Corp Common (UNP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #1
The average price target is $266.54 with a high forecast of $289.00 and a low forecast of $245.00. The average price target represents a 14.11% change from the ...
Extracted: $266.54, $289.00, $245.00Open source
Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #2
The highest price target for UNP is $286.00, while the lowest price target for UNP is $215.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 6.90% ...
Extracted: $286.00, $215.00Open source
Union Pacific Corp. Analyst Estimates - UNP - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $291.00. Median, $266.00. Low, $235.00. Average, $266.52. Current Price, $235.23. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. UNP will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $291.00, $266.00, $235.00, $266.52, $235.23Open source
Union Pacific Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 26 ; Last Close Price. 235.10USD ; Average target price. 264.58USD ; Spread / Average Target. +12.54%.
Extracted: $235.10, $264.58Open source
UNP - Union Pacific Stock - Displayed [698 Analyst Price Targets]
Search result #5
Highest price target for UNP is $286, Lowest price target is $215, average price target is $258. Most recent stock forecast was given by BRIAN OSSENBECK from ...
Extracted: $286.00, $215.00, $258.00Open source
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #6
Union ... Analyst Insights: UNP. 更多內容. Analyst Price Targets. 216.00 Low. 264.42 Average.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$308 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$262 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$215 / p=20% prob

Price $266 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base -1% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-05
Operational/guidance update (cost, fuel, network performance)
Material operational updates (fuel cost outlook, network performance) could alter margin outlook and analyst targets; timing assumed within the upcoming quarter window and the date chosen is the window end for conservatism [#SERP-1].
Prob 40.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / guidance (Q1 2026)
2026-05-05
Q1 results and management guidance can drive a re-rate; analysts show a one-year median target above current price which may be updated after the release [#SERP-3]. Assumed release date used due to no exact public date in the reviewed snippets.
Prob 60% • Move 5% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Infrastructure investment returns and rate environment normalization
2027-02-04
Multi-quarter benefits from announced capex and potential freight volume recovery could drive medium-term upside versus peers; reflected in many sell-side one-year targets [#SERP-1] [#SERP-3].
Prob 70% • Move 20% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
Regulatory or network disruption increasing transit costs
Slower-than-expected freight volume recovery

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CSX	East/West freight network peer with similar sensitivity to volume and pricing; useful operational comparator.
NSC	Large North American freight operator; comparable exposure to intermodal and merchandise markets.
CNI	Canadian National — cross-border freight exposure and pricing power comparable for longer-term volume trends.
CP	Canadian Pacific Kansas City — North American network consolidation peer; useful for assessing pricing/efficiency upside.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Union Pacific Corp Common (UNP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04

AI Stock Memo: UNP - Union Pacific - RankAlpha