AI Stock Memo: UFCS - United Fire Group - RankAlpha

UFCS

Rating sellAI Memo

United Fire Group

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Annual meeting / proxy disclosures • 2026-05-14

Expected move: -18%

Biggest risk

Adverse reserve development, large catastrophe losses, or weaker investment income could push results below expectations and reprice the stock toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $31 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained combined-ratio improvement, conservative reserve development, and modest capital returns could drive multiple expansion; this is a lower-probability outcome given consensus positioning.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$36

p=60%

Bull target

$44

p=20%

Bear target

$31

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results / earnings release (near-term)
12-month reserve development and underwriting-cycle re-rating
Sustained combined-ratio improvement, conservative reserve development, and modest capital returns could drive multiple expansion; this is a lower-probability outcome given consensus positioning.

BearKey bullets

Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
Large catastrophe or clustered severe-weather losses
Weaker investment income or mark-to-market volatility

WatchKey bullets

Annual meeting / proxy disclosures

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $36 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +0% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +0% · Base -18% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $44 (p=20%)Base Target: $36 (p=60%)Bear Target: $31 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is sparse and consensus price targets cluster below the current market price, implying limited upside. Short-term tone is cautious and tied to reserve and underwriting clarity.

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained combined-ratio improvement, conservative reserve development, and modest capital returns could drive multiple expansion; this is a lower-probability outcome given consensus positioning.

Bear Case

Adverse reserve development, large catastrophe losses, or weaker investment income could push results below expectations and reprice the stock toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results / earnings release (near-term)
12-month reserve development and underwriting-cycle re-rating

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$36.43

Range (USD)

$31.31 - $38.00

Count

Query: United Fire Group Inc Common (UFCS) analyst consensus price target high low average

United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) Stock Price, News, Quote
Search result #1
United Fire ... Analyst Price Targets. 38.00 Low. 39.50 Average. 39.60 Current. 41.00 High ...
Open source
United Fire Group (UFCS) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #2
The forecasts for United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) range from a low of $37 to a high of $37. The average price target represents a decline of $4.44 from the last ...
Extracted: $37.00, $4.44Open source
United Fire Group, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Last Close Price. 35.14USD ; Average target price. 36.50USD ; Spread / Average Target. +3.87% ; High Price Target. 38.00USD ; Spread / Highest ...
Extracted: $35.14, $36.50, $38.00Open source
United Fire Group (UFCS) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #4
The average price target is $37.00 with a high forecast of $37.00 and a low forecast of $37.00. The average price target represents a 0.46% change from the last ...
Extracted: $37.00Open source
UFCS / United Fire Group, Inc. (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for United Fire Group, Inc. is $32.64. The forecasts range from a low of $31.31 to a high of $34.65. Read More.
Extracted: $32.64, $31.31, $34.65Open source
United Fire Group (Nasdaq:UFCS) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
Search result #6
Price-To-Earnings ratio (8.4x) is below the US market (19.5x) ; Earnings grew by 90.8% over the past year ; Unstable dividend track record.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=20% prob

Price $44 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +0% · Base -18% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-14
Annual meeting / proxy disclosures
Proxy and AGM disclosures (capital-return signals, governance) may alter buyback/dividend expectations; timing assumed within the proxy cycle.
Prob 55.00% • Move 3.50% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results / earnings release (near-term)
2026-05-14
Next quarterly earnings and reserve commentary could move the stock intraday depending on combined ratio and reserve disclosures; assumed date used where none published.
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

12-month reserve development and underwriting-cycle re-rating
2027-02-13
Sustained improvement or deterioration in loss ratios and reserve development could re-rate the multiple over 12 months if trends persist.
Prob 40% • Move 18% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Adverse reserve development from prior accident years
Large catastrophe or clustered severe-weather losses
Weaker investment income or mark-to-market volatility

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TRV	Large diversified P/C insurer; benchmark for pricing and reserving cycles.
HIG	Broad property-casualty insurer used for reserve and capital-management comparisons.
RLI	Specialty insurer with comparable underwriting focus and margin dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: United Fire Group Inc Common (UFCS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13