UBS

Capital-return / buyback update or CET1 guidance • 2026-12-31

Bear case: Continued wealth outflows, weaker trading revenues, or material regulatory/legal developments force higher capital retention and margin compression, pushing the stock toward the bear target (36.0). Delays in integration or significant fines would amplify downside pressure.

Break below $36 or thesis failure.

Bull case: Re-accelerating net new money in wealth management, sustained trading and fee strength, and explicit capital-return actions (buybacks/dividends) lead to multiple expansion and a move toward the bull target (60.0). Clear management guidance on capital allocation and successful integration cost saves would validate a higher valuation.