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UBS

UBS GroupC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: Re-accelerating net new money in wealth management, sustained trading and fee strength, and explicit capital-return actions (buybacks/dividends) lead to multiple expansion and a move toward the bull target (60.0). Clear management guidance on capital allocation and successful integration cost saves would validate a higher valuation.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
What can break
Delayed/reduced capital returns (buybacks/dividends) that cap upside
Momentum
65
Value
53
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $48.03 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $53.75
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d +2.4
Value53 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-13.
  • • News driver: US Economy Can Withstand Two Rate Hikes, Says UBS’s Reiman.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Delayed/reduced capital returns (buybacks/dividends) that cap upside
  • • Prolonged weak trading/markets lowering trading revenues
  • • Bear case: Continued wealth outflows, weaker trading revenues, or material regulatory/legal developments force higher capital retention and margin compression, pushing the stock toward the bear target (36.0).

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

Q4 / FY2025 earnings and guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-1.3
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 64.9 / Value 53.1 / Sentiment 54.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$48.03
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$162.7B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
3.06B
P/E (TTM)
21.7
P/S (TTM)
3.11
P/FCF (TTM)
78.24
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
+20.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+14.0%
Net Debt
$170.31B
Current Ratio
0.72
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data