AI Stock Memo: TXN - Texas Instruments - RankAlpha

TXN

AI Memo

Texas Instruments

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release (estimated) • 2026-04-28

Expected move: -35%

Biggest risk

Bear case: prolonged end-market weakness or inventory destocking leads to revenue/margin downside and multiple compression toward the low end of analyst targets.

Invalidation

Break below $150 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: stronger-than-expected industrial and automotive demand, continued margin expansion from product mix, and positive analyst revisions driving re-rating toward the high end of the consensus range.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$198

p=55%

Bull target

$260

p=25%

Bear target

$150

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst revisions and target updates
Cyclical demand recovery in analog/embedded markets
Bull case: stronger-than-expected industrial and automotive demand, continued margin expansion from product mix, and positive analyst revisions driving re-rating toward the high end of the consensus range.

BearKey bullets

Accelerated competitive pricing or share loss
Cyclical industrial and automotive demand slowdown
Distributor channel inventory destocking

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $198 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -15% / -51%

Vs latest close: Bull -15% · Base -35% · Bear -51%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $260 (p=25%)Base Target: $198 (p=55%)Bear Target: $150 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is neutral-to-cautious: the anchor (207.5) sits modestly above the analyst median, implying limited near-term upside while analyst targets remain widely dispersed [#SERP-4][#SERP-1]. Near-term conviction will hinge on upcoming earnings/guidance and capital-return signals, supporting a Hold stance with moderate confidence [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: prolonged end-market weakness or inventory destocking leads to revenue/margin downside and multiple compression toward the low end of analyst targets.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst revisions and target updates
Cyclical demand recovery in analog/embedded markets

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$196.59

Range (USD)

$126.25 - $298.00

Count

Query: Texas Instruments Inc Common (TXN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 33 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Texas Instruments is 194.98, with a high estimate of 245 and a low estimate ...
Open source
Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #2
The highest price target for TXN is $245.00, while the lowest price target for TXN is $140.00. The average price target represents a forecasted downside of - ...
Extracted: $245.00, $140.00Open source
Consensus Texas Instruments Incorporated - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Last Close Price. 193.31USD. Average target price. 194.07USD. Spread / Average Target. +0.39%. High Price Target. 245.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +26.74%.
Extracted: $193.31, $194.07, $245.00Open source
Texas Instruments Inc. Analyst Estimates - TXN - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets ; High, $245.00 ; Median, $195.00 ; Low, $140.00 ; Average, $198.61 ; Current Price, $196.59 ...
Extracted: $245.00, $195.00, $140.00, $198.61, $196.59Open source
TXN Stock Forecast - Texas Instruments Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TXN is 189.65 USD with a low forecast of 126.25 USD and a high forecast of 257.25 USD.
Extracted: $189.65, $126.25, $257.25Open source
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #6
FY25. 0. 1B. 2B. 3B. 4B. View More. Analyst Insights: TXN. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 140.00 Low. 199.50 Average. 196.63 Current. 245.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$260 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$198 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$150 / p=20% prob

Price $306 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 15%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -15% · Base -35% · Bear -51%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-28
Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Upcoming quarterly earnings and guidance can materially move the stock; date estimated conservatively when not disclosed [#SERP-4].
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst revisions and target updates
2026-04-28
Near-term analyst target changes (upgrades/downgrades) have driven recent price action and can cause renewed volatility [#SERP-9], [#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Cyclical demand recovery in analog/embedded markets
2027-01-28
If industrial and automotive end-demand recover, TI's content gains and operating leverage could drive above-consensus upside [#SERP-1].
Prob 45% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Accelerated competitive pricing or share loss
Cyclical industrial and automotive demand slowdown
Distributor channel inventory destocking
Geopolitical or supply-chain disruptions
Margin compression from product mix or pricing pressure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ADI	Analog Devices — similar analog/mixed-signal exposure; competition and industrial cyclicality are shared themes.
ON	ON Semiconductor — automotive and power-management overlap; more exposure to auto electrification cycles.
MCHP	Microchip Technology — embedded controllers and niche analog products; smaller footprint but comparable cyclic sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Texas Instruments Inc Common (TXN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28