TTMI

Rating neutralAI Memo

TTM

As of 2026-04-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

May 27, 2026 investor day can test durability of the AI and defense narrative • 2026-05-27

Expected move: -39%

Biggest risk

The stock was already extended into the print and traded roughly flat versus the April 28, 2026 anchor despite a strong release, suggesting much of the good news was already priced; post-print sell-side target revisions were not yet visible in the checked evidence, so valuation support has not caught up.

Invalidation

Break below $105 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The company delivered a clean T+1 earnings follow-up: record quarterly sales and non-GAAP EPS, strong Q2 guidance, and explicit commentary that AI/data-center buildouts plus defense demand drove the upside [#8-K-2026-04-29].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-29

Base target

$122

p=45%

Bull target

$150

p=25%

Bear target

$105

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise follow-through
AI/data-center and defense mix remains the core upside driver
The company delivered a clean T+1 earnings follow-up: record quarterly sales and non-GAAP EPS, strong Q2 guidance, and explicit commentary that AI/data-center buildouts plus defense demand drove the upside [#8-K-2026-04-29].

BearKey bullets

Customer concentration remains meaningful: the top five OEM customers were about 44% of 2025 net sales and two customers were 23% [#10-K-2026-02-17].
Management’s view that first-half 2026 growth can continue at a similar pace in the second half depends on sustained AI/data-center and defense demand; any slowdown would pressure a stock already trading above the packet’s median target [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Q1 operating cash flow was only $21.7M against net capital expenditures of $106.8M, leaving free cash flow negative despite strong earnings [#8-K-2026-04-29].

WatchKey bullets

May 27, 2026 investor day can test durability of the AI and defense narrative

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $122 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: -25% / -47%

Vs latest close: Bull -25% · Base -39% · Bear -47%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $150 (p=25%)Base Target: $122 (p=45%)Bear Target: $105 (p=30%)

Commentary

Earnings-day headline buzz is high, but the immediate market reaction was muted: TTMI was about $137.23 at 20:08:47 UTC on April 29, 2026 versus the $137.59 April 28 anchor, after a very wide intraday range. That flat reaction after a strong print argues for caution, and checked evidence did not yet show a reliable wave of post-print analyst target or estimate revisions on this T+1 run.

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise follow-through
AI/data-center and defense mix remains the core upside driver

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$150 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$122 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$105 / p=30% prob

Price $200 as of 2026-06-16

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 25%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -25% · Base -39% · Bear -47%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
May 27, 2026 investor day can test durability of the AI and defense narrative
TTM said it will hold a 2026 Investor Day on May 27, 2026 to discuss its business and future opportunities, giving management a near-term venue to reinforce demand visibility, margin trajectory, and capital needs after the strong Q1 print [#IR-2026-04-23].
Prob 45.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise follow-through
2026-05-15
TTM reported record Q1 2026 net sales of $846.0M, non-GAAP EPS of $0.75, book-to-bill of 1.41, and guided Q2 2026 net sales to $930M-$970M with non-GAAP EPS of $0.82-$0.88, while management said the first-half 2026 growth pace could continue in 2H26 [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI/data-center and defense mix remains the core upside driver
2026-08-01
Q1 results showed Data Center and Networking at 36% of sales, Aerospace and Defense at 40% of sales, and A&D program backlog at $1.6B, supporting a multi-quarter demand case if execution holds and orders convert to cash [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 70%

Risks

Customer concentration remains meaningful: the top five OEM customers were about 44% of 2025 net sales and two customers were 23% [#10-K-2026-02-17].
Management’s view that first-half 2026 growth can continue at a similar pace in the second half depends on sustained AI/data-center and defense demand; any slowdown would pressure a stock already trading above the packet’s median target [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Q1 operating cash flow was only $21.7M against net capital expenditures of $106.8M, leaving free cash flow negative despite strong earnings [#8-K-2026-04-29].
The 10-K says additional capital expenditures may be required to respond to competitive pressures and customer requirements, adding execution and return-on-investment risk [#10-K-2026-02-17].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LFUS	Littelfuse is the closest candidate here on component exposure and electronics end-market sensitivity, though its protection/power mix is still different from TTMI’s PCB/RF manufacturing model.
ARW	Arrow Electronics offers a supply-chain and enterprise-hardware demand read-through, but its distributor model makes it an imperfect operating comp for TTMI.
CSCO	Cisco is useful mainly as a broader data-center/networking demand benchmark; its scale and software/network OEM mix limit direct comparability.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-29

AI Stock Memo: TTMI - TTM - RankAlpha