TSN

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Tyson Foods

As of 2026-05-04/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Raised FY2026 adjusted operating outlook versus Q1 baseline • 2026-09-26

Expected move: +14%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that adjusted Q2 operating income and adjusted EPS were still down year over year, Beef remained deeply loss-making, and the updated beef outlook still implies a sizable FY2026 drag. On a T+1 run, broad analyst target revisions and estimate changes were not yet clearly available, so the thesis should stay in monitoring mode rather than assume a full post-print rerating.

Invalidation

Break below $57 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull case is that Q2 confirmed real strength in Chicken and Prepared Foods, management raised FY2026 adjusted operating income and free-cash-flow expectations versus the Q1 baseline, and the initial market reaction was positive as investors focused on mix and margin rather than headline beef weakness. The base-case target of about $68 is broadly consistent with the packet's median analyst target near $68.09.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-04

Base target

$68

p=1%

Bull target

$72

p=0%

Bear target

$57

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2 earnings beat with chicken and prepared foods driving the print
Protein mix shift and balance-sheet improvement can sustain a steadier rerating if beef normalizes
The post-earnings bull case is that Q2 confirmed real strength in Chicken and Prepared Foods, management raised FY2026 adjusted operating income and free-cash-flow expectations versus the Q1 baseline, and the initial market reaction was positive as investors focused on mix and margin rather than headline beef weakness.

BearKey bullets

Adjusted Q2 operating income fell to $497M from $515M and adjusted EPS declined to $0.87 from $0.92 year over year, so the quarter was not a clean broad-based margin expansion story [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Beef remained the main earnings headwind, with Q2 operating loss of $240M and adjusted operating loss of $202M, and FY2026 beef guidance still calls for a substantial loss [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Legal contingency accrual comparisons still affect year-over-year sales framing, which adds noise to underlying operating momentum.

WatchKey bullets

Raised FY2026 adjusted operating outlook versus Q1 baseline

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $68 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +21% / -4%

Vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +14% · Bear -4%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $72 (p=0%)Base Target: $68 (p=1%)Bear Target: $57 (p=0%)

Commentary

This is a May 4, 2026 T+1 post-earnings follow-up. Primary company evidence is strong because the quarter was confirmed through the earnings 8-K and exhibit. Headline tone was positive, with coverage emphasizing the earnings beat, chicken strength, and raised profit outlook, and early market reaction appeared modestly positive, roughly in the low-single-digit range. Still, broad post-print analyst target and estimate revisions were not yet clearly available in checked sources, so the tone should remain constructive but cautious rather than fully upgraded.

As of 2026-05-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2 earnings beat with chicken and prepared foods driving the print
Protein mix shift and balance-sheet improvement can sustain a steadier rerating if beef normalizes

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=0% prob

Price $60 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +14% · Bear -4%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.62

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-26
Raised FY2026 adjusted operating outlook versus Q1 baseline
Compared with the February 2 Q1 outlook, Tyson raised total company adjusted operating income to $2.2B-$2.4B from $2.1B-$2.3B, lifted chicken to $1.9B-$2.05B from $1.65B-$1.90B, narrowed beef to a worse-but-better-underwritten loss range of $(500)M to $(350)M from $(500)M to $(250)M, and increased free cash flow to $1.2B-$1.8B from $1.1B-$1.7B. The key event question for the next few weeks is whether investors treat the guidance lift as durable enough to outweigh beef-cycle drag [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Prob 64.00% • Move 6.50% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2 earnings beat with chicken and prepared foods driving the print
2026-05-04
Tyson's May 4 earnings release showed Q2 sales of $13.653B, GAAP operating income of $435M, and GAAP EPS of $0.73, while management highlighted chicken and prepared foods momentum, market-share gains, and top-line growth. Segment detail showed Chicken operating income rising to $505M with 11.8% margin and Prepared Foods operating income at $348M with 13.9% margin, offsetting another large Beef loss. This supports a near-term positive read-through, though the beat framing comes from post-print coverage rather than company-provided consensus and is tempered by weaker year-over-year adjusted EPS and continued beef pressure [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Prob 78% • Move 5% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Protein mix shift and balance-sheet improvement can sustain a steadier rerating if beef normalizes
2026-09-26
The release showed $3.7B of liquidity as of March 28, 2026, $829M of operating cash flow in the first half, $432M of free cash flow, and $747M of debt reduction, while management emphasized a diversified multi-protein portfolio and year-to-date shareholder returns. If Tyson can keep Chicken and Prepared Foods margins firm while Beef losses narrow from current depressed levels, the stock has room to trade closer to a steadier consumer-staples multiple rather than a trough-cycle protein multiple [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Prob 52% • Move 11% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Adjusted Q2 operating income fell to $497M from $515M and adjusted EPS declined to $0.87 from $0.92 year over year, so the quarter was not a clean broad-based margin expansion story [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Beef remained the main earnings headwind, with Q2 operating loss of $240M and adjusted operating loss of $202M, and FY2026 beef guidance still calls for a substantial loss [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Legal contingency accrual comparisons still affect year-over-year sales framing, which adds noise to underlying operating momentum.
T+1 analyst revision evidence was still thin, so missing target increases or estimate upgrades should be treated as an evidence gap rather than a positive signal.
Tyson's FY2026 outlook assumes manageable protein supply and pricing conditions; if domestic production rises faster than demand or cattle tightness persists, margin recovery could disappoint [#8-K-2026-05-04].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PPC	Pilgrim's Pride is the most direct public operating comparator for Tyson's chicken exposure because both compete in large-scale poultry production and processing. Tyson's Q2 chicken margin strength is therefore a higher-quality signal than a packaged-food peer comparison, but it still needs to be weighed against Tyson's broader beef and pork exposure.
HRL	Hormel is a relevant meat and value-added protein comparator, especially for prepared foods and branded refrigerated products. Tyson's Prepared Foods margin strength supports the comparison, while Tyson's heavier commodity beef and chicken mix justifies a more cyclical discount than Hormel.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-04

AI Stock Memo: TSN - Tyson Foods - RankAlpha