TROW

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

T Rowe Price Group

As of 2026-04-07/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 & FY2025 earnings release (filed via 8-K) • 2026-02-04

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Persistent outflows or further market-rate driven fee compression reduce revenue and shrink buyback capacity, driving multiple contraction toward the low-$70s.

Invalidation

Break below $78 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Flows stabilize and AUM begins to recover within 12 months; fee margin retention and modest buybacks lift EPS and multiple toward high peer range, supporting ~$120/share.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-07

Base target

$100

p=55%

Bull target

$120

p=25%

Bear target

$78

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Capital return / dividend cadence and share-repurchase sizing
AUM / net-flow stabilization and recovery
Flows stabilize and AUM begins to recover within 12 months; fee margin retention and modest buybacks lift EPS and multiple toward high peer range, supporting ~$120/share.

BearKey bullets

Adverse market returns hurting performance fees and revenue
Fee compression from product mix shift
Prolonged client outflows and AUM decline

WatchKey bullets

Q4 & FY2025 earnings release (filed via 8-K)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $100 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +15% / -25%

Vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base -4% · Bear -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $120 (p=25%)Base Target: $100 (p=55%)Bear Target: $78 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary since the Feb earnings release has centered on large FY2025 outflows and AUM pressure; near-term tone is cautious while analysts sit near neutral-to-sell on consensus targets [#8-K-2026-02-04] [#IR-2026-02-04] [#SERP-2]. Investors will focus on sequential flow prints and capital-return announcements in upcoming quarters.

As of 2026-04-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Flows stabilize and AUM begins to recover within 12 months; fee margin retention and modest buybacks lift EPS and multiple toward high peer range, supporting ~$120/share.

Bear Case

Persistent outflows or further market-rate driven fee compression reduce revenue and shrink buyback capacity, driving multiple contraction toward the low-$70s.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Capital return / dividend cadence and share-repurchase sizing
AUM / net-flow stabilization and recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$99.08

Range (USD)

$83.00 - $120.75

Count

Query: T. Rowe Price Group Inc Common (TROW) analyst consensus price target high low average

TROW Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings - ChartMill
Search result #2
19 Wall Street analysts provided a forecast for the next 12 months for TROW. The average price target is 101.59 USD. This implies a price increase of 13.1% is ...
Extracted: $101.59Open source
TROW Price: Quote, Forecast, Charts & News - Perplexity
Search result #3
Analyst sentiment remains cautious with a consensus 'Reduce' rating and average price target of $101.69, as fee pressure, persistent net outflows, and a Q4 EPS ...
Extracted: $101.69Open source
TROW Analyst Ratings for T Rowe Price Group Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #4
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Moderate Sell. 2.31. Based on 13 ...
Open source
TROW Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #5
11 analysts have given TROW a consensus rating of Sell while the TROW price prediction in 2026 is $101.36.
Extracted: $101.36Open source
Consensus T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 13 ; Last Close Price. 90.17USD ; Average target price. 99.08USD ; Spread / Average Target. +9.89%.
Extracted: $90.17, $99.08Open source
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets
Search result #7
The 11 analysts that cover T. Rowe Price Group stock have a consensus rating of "Sell" and an average price target of $101.36, which forecasts a 12.41% increase ...
Extracted: $101.36Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$120 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$78 / p=20% prob

Price $104 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base -4% · Bear -25%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-04
Q4 & FY2025 earnings release (filed via 8-K)
Company issued Q4 and full-year 2025 results in an 8-K/earnings release on 2026-02-04; release disclosed AUM of $1.8T and net client outflows of $25.5B in Q4 and $56.9B for FY2025 [#8-K-2026-02-04] [#IR-2026-02-04].
Prob 95.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 80.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Capital return / dividend cadence and share-repurchase sizing
2026-07-06
T. Rowe Price has a history of regular dividends; any change (increase or reduction) to the quarterly dividend or a material repurchase program update in an upcoming capital-allocation announcement would be a near-term market driver — monitor company press releases and proxy/10-K disclosures for formal action [#10-K-2026-02-13] [#IR-2026-02-04].
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AUM / net-flow stabilization and recovery
2027-04-07
Management disclosed large FY2025 net outflows ($56.9B) and AUM $1.8T; a multi-quarter recovery in organic net flows or reduced outflow pace would materially re-rate fees and revenue over the next 12 months—monitor sequential flow trends and AUM at each quarterly release as the operational driver [#IR-2026-02-04] [#10-K-2026-02-13].
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Adverse market returns hurting performance fees and revenue
Fee compression from product mix shift
Prolonged client outflows and AUM decline

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CG	Private-equity & asset-management comparator with similar market-cap scale and sensitivity to fundraising/fee mix.
CBOE	Market-structure / asset-manager-adjacent firm — useful for comparing fee/market-activity sensitivity though business mix differs.
GPN	Payments processor peer for fee/volume exposure comparison; less direct but helpful for payments/transaction-fee sensitivity framing.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: T. Rowe Price Group Inc Common (TROW) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-07

AI Stock Memo: TROW - T Rowe Price Group - RankAlpha