TR

Rating neutralAI Memo

Tootsie Roll Industries

As of 2026-04-16/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Upcoming Q1 2026 quarterly filing / results (regular quarterly cadence) • 2026-07-15

Expected move: +17%

Biggest risk

Bear case: continued margin pressure, weaker-than-expected retail sell-through and structural mix headwinds force downward revisions; deferred tax/valuation items disclosed in 10-K trigger increased earnings volatility or one-time charges.

Invalidation

Break below $36 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: company executes on margin recovery and mix improvement across retail channels (post-holiday recovery + limited promotional pressure), leading to EPS upside and investor multiple expansion; positive surprises in upcoming quarterly results accelerate re-rating.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-16

Base target

$44

p=60%

Bull target

$52

p=20%

Bear target

$36

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Full-year 2026 revenue/margin recovery vs.
FY2025 comps (post-holiday product/mix recovery)
Bull case: company executes on margin recovery and mix improvement across retail channels (post-holiday recovery + limited promotional pressure), leading to EPS upside and investor multiple expansion; positive surprises in upcoming quarterly results accelerate re-rating.

BearKey bullets

Margin pressure from commodity or labor costs
Promotional price wars or lost shelf space
Retail sell-through weaker than expected

WatchKey bullets

Upcoming Q1 2026 quarterly filing / results (regular quarterly cadence)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $44 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +38% / -5%

Vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +17% · Bear -5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $52 (p=20%)Base Target: $44 (p=60%)Bear Target: $36 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-neutral: analysts show median targets near current levels while some price-target data is stale/low, producing cautious sentiment [#SERP-7]. Recent primary filings (8-K and 10-K) reset the FY2025 baseline and focus investor attention on margin and tax disclosures [#8-K-2026-02-12] [#10-K-2026-02-27]. Coverage and newsflow are steady but not momentum-driven.

As of 2026-04-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Full-year 2026 revenue/margin recovery vs. FY2025 comps (post-holiday product/mix recovery)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$43.80

Range (USD)

$12.20 - $46.00

Count

Query: Tootsie Roll Industries Inc Common (TR) analyst consensus price target high low average

TR | Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings - WSJ
Search result #7
Stock Price Target TR. High, $12.20. Median, $12.20. Low, $12.20. Average, $12.20. Current Price, $43.73. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & Ratings ...
Extracted: $12.20, $43.73Open source
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
Find the latest Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR) stock forecast, 12-month price target, predictions and analyst recommendations.
Open source
Tootsie Roll Industries Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy TR?
Search result #2
Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further ...
Open source
TR | Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $12.20. Median, $12.20. Low, $12.20. Average, $12.20. Current Price, $43.04. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. TR will report 2011 earnings ...
Extracted: $12.20, $43.04Open source
TR Stock Price Quote & News - Tootsie Roll - Robinhood
Search result #9
As of 2026-04-14, Tootsie Roll(TR) stock has fluctuated between $44.33 and $44.33. The current price stands at $44.33, placing the stock 0.0% above today's low ...
Extracted: $44.33Open source
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Research & Ratings | TR - Barron's
Search result #10
Stock Price Target ; High, $12.20 ; Low, $12.20 ; Average, $12.20 ; Current Price, $43.86 ...
Extracted: $12.20, $43.86Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=20% prob

Price $38 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +17% · Bear -5%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-15
Upcoming Q1 2026 quarterly filing / results (regular quarterly cadence)
Quarterly 10-Q / earnings release for period ending Mar 31, 2026 is a near-term operating read (quarterly cadence evidenced by prior 10-Q filings) [#10-Q-2025-11-07].
Prob 85.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-08-27
Market reaction to issues disclosed in 2025 10-K (tax/valuation & margin commentary)
The 2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-27) includes disclosures (e.g., deferred tax asset valuation allowance references) that could drive analyst re-rates or revised tax-related guidance when management provides follow-ups in earnings calls or investor Q&A [#10-K-2026-02-27].
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Full-year 2026 revenue/margin recovery vs. FY2025 comps (post-holiday product/mix recovery)
2027-04-16
Investor thesis hinges on multi-quarter recovery in gross margin and mix after FY2025 results; the company issued Q4/FY2025 results via 8-K and the 10-K provides the baseline for FY2025 performance—outperformance versus that baseline would be a multi-quarter driver [#8-K-2026-02-12] [#10-K-2026-02-27].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Margin pressure from commodity or labor costs
Promotional price wars or lost shelf space
Retail sell-through weaker than expected
Tax/valuation allowance adjustments disclosed in 10-K

Peers

Symbol	Summary
JJSF	Snacking/packaged food peer with branded retail exposure and similar channel-inventory sensitivity.
FLO	Large baked-goods/consumer-packaged-food operator; useful comparators for shelf-stable retail channel trends and pricing/mix actions.
SAM	Branded beverage/consumer company with direct-to-retail distribution and promotional cadence comparable for seasonal demand analysis.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Tootsie Roll Industries Inc Common (TR) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-16

AI Stock Memo: TR - Tootsie Roll Industries - RankAlpha